Sunday, July 30, 2006
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Saturday, July 29, 2006
World Series of Poker latest betting
It is not easy to predict the winner of the World Series of Poker. With an expected 8,000 runners some would argue that it is a lottery dressed up as the world’s richest poker tournament. But the fact is that the winner will have to be a good poker player and that it will take a lot more than pure luck to win the estimated $10 million first prize.
Ten months ago BetUSA.com opened betting on the World Series with a list of 300 of the top players in the world. Since then we had been adding players each week and are now offering odds on more than 600 players. Phil Ivey is the 150-1 favorite, followed by Daniel Negreanu at 225-1, Phil Hellmuth and Howard ‘The Professor’ Lederer at 250-1 and Gus Hansen, Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson and John Juanda at 300-1.
Last year’s champion, Joe Hachem, is on offer at 1000-1, even though he has two final tables to his name in the course of this year’s World Series. Many bracelet holders are on offer at odds of up to 2000-1, meaning that for a very small outlay you can have a huge payday if you are lucky enough to pick the winner.
At BetUSA.com we have found that our clients are picking out a ‘team’ of 10 players and having $5 or $10 on each, in the hope that one of them can win. We also offering odds on all 600+ players listed to make the final table, so often clients are betting their selections to ‘win’ and ‘show’ (ie to get to the final table). Some people have asked us: “How can any player be as low as 150-1 in an eight thousand player event?”
The answer to this is twofold. The first is what odds would you make Phil Ivey? This usually provokes the person to say 2000-1 or so but they become curiously reluctant to allow anyone to have a bet at those odds. When I have offered to back Ivey at 500-1 or 250-1 they also refuse, which suggests that 2000-1 is not the correct price! In our view Phil Ivey is easily the best no limit poker player in the world. He plays relatively few tournaments but those he takes part in he tends to do well – witness his 3rd place finish in this year’s $50k H.O.R.S.E event in which many felt he was unlucky not to win it.
Is Phil Ivey 50 times better than the average player in the $10k main event at the World Series? Yes, we think possibly he might be. The second reason some of the players are relatively short odds is simply a question of supply and demand. The big name players like Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth and Dan Harrington are constantly shown on television and as a result bettors know their names and want to have a bet. Given how quickly we can build up an enormous liability at odds of 1000-1 or even 500-1, if the bets come in for those players then we do have to cut the odds. At the moment we are facing high six figure payouts on 23 players, which gives you some idea of how much the power of television influences people’s betting on the World Series.
Probably the best value is to find a player who is relatively unfashionable and does well in the serious cash games and so plays relatively few tournaments. Sure you are going to have to get lucky to find the winner but if you do you are going to be paid handsomely for your luck!
BetUSA.com betting on World Series of Poker main event (all bets action) Phil Ivey 150-1 Daniel Negreanu 225-1 Phil Hellmuth 250-1 Howard (The Professor) Lederer 250-1 Gus Hansen 300-1 Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 300-1 John Juanda 300-1 Layne Flack 400-1 Marcel Luske 400-1 Barry Greenstein 400-1 Carlos Mortenson 400-1 Scotty Nguyen 400-1 Sam Farha 400-1 Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 400-1 Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 400-1 Michael Mizrachi 400-1 Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 500-1 Phil (Unabomber) Laak 500-1 Erik Seidel 500-1 Huckleberry Seed 500-1 Johnny Chan 500-1 John (World) Hennigan 500-1 Men (The Master) Nguyen 500-1 Paul Phillips 500-1 Ram (Crazy Horse) Vaswani 500-1 TJ Cloutier 500-1 Dan Harrington 500-1 Annie Duke 500-1 Antonio Esfandiari 500-1 Doyle (Texas Dolly) Brunson 500-1
Check out the BetUSA site for the rest of the betting.
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Thursday, July 27, 2006
New!! Fantasy Football Column.
The Betting Directory have added a Fantasy Football column to their pages which will be regularly updated with the latest fantasy football news. Below is a copy of the first article. Log in regularly for all the latest tips!
With the opening of NFL training camps just around the corner, now is the time to begin thinking about fantasy football! We still have seven weeks until the season begins, but for hardcore fantasy players this is when they make decisions about what leagues to participate in and how many they want to do. I will give you my rankings for each position as we get closer to the season and when most people will have their drafts, but this column will give you an overall basic strategy you want to have for your draft.
The first thing you have to know is your league's scoring system. Does your league count points for touchdowns and yardage gained, or is it just touchdowns? Does your league include defensive teams and/or defensive players? Being familiar with your scoring system is the most important thing to know going into your draft, because that will determine the players you should be drafting and in which round. For example, if your league only counts touchdowns, then a QB like Michael Vick is not going to be very valuable because he doesn't pass for very many. He's much more valuable in a league where yardage is counted, because his rushing stats will give you a ton of points. For the purposes of this article, I will talk about a basic strategy for a league where yards and touchdowns are counted, and you have to have a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 kicker and 1 defensive team. I would say a large majority of leagues people play in have a similar format to this. Some leagues might have the option to have 1 RB and 3 WRs instead of 2 and 2, but for the most part, you're going to see a structure that is close to this.
As you go into the draft, you need to realize that RB and QB are going to score the majority of your points, so that's where your focus needs to be in the early rounds. The top-level WRs are also a consideration in those first 3-4 rounds, but WRs are much less reliable as a whole, so I tend to grab the 2 RBs and the QB with my first three picks. If I can't get a top-shelf QB in the first three rounds (P. Manning, McNabb, Culpepper, Palmer) then I'll get that WR instead and go for a mid-level QB (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck, Vick, E.Manning) in the 5th-6th round.
Usually, my first two picks are going to be RBs, no matter what slot I'm in during the draft. If I'm in the top three, it's
a pretty easy choice. The top three picks this year are unquestionably Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson, in that order. If I have a pick later than three, then it's kind of a crapshoot. There are three second-level RBs who I will target next: Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. Now, normally you aren't going to see RBs taken with the first six picks (usually someone will grab Manning and maybe a WR in there also), so even if you draft at the end of the first round, you could be able to get one of those three.
If all 6 of those guys are gone and Manning is there, I would take him. If Manning is gone also, then assuming this is a snake-type draft (if you have the last pick of the 1st round you would get the first pick of the 2nd round), these are the next-level RBs to target: LaMont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis, Cadillac Williams, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones and Julius Jones. In my opinion all of these guys are pretty similar as to what they are going to do for you, but I'll give you my RB rankings as we get closer to the season. You could get two of these guys with your first two picks and be just fine for your backfield. If you picked early in the first round that means you're going to have a late second-round pick, so hopefully one of these guys will slip to you. If all of these guys are gone (unlikely) then I would target either McNabb/Palmer or the top-rated WR left (Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, T.O. or Randy Moss).
As you end the third round, you should have your two RBs and either your QB or your No. 1 WR. The 4th-5th
rounds can then be used to fill out your QB and WR slots, so by the end of Round 5 you have your QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs slots filled. As I said, I'll give you the WR rankings as we get closer to the season. If for some reason Antonio Gates, the top-rated TE, is available in Round 4 or 5 (unlikely), go ahead and draft him instead of a WR, which you can get in the 6th round. Gates is the only TE worthy of being selected in those rounds in my opinion.
The middle rounds (6th-10th) are used to build depth on your team, and to pick up your TE and defense. Generally
if a top TE like Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap are available, I will get them in the 6th round, then target a top defense like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Carolina in the 7th round. This will fill out your starting lineup (except for your kicker), and then you can start to grab the best backups available. In the 8th round I would target the best available RB, the 9th I would get the best available QB, then the 10th go for the best available WR.
The late rounds (11th-16th) are where you can win a league. Every year you can pick up a player in these late rounds that will become a star during the season. Obviously the key is to know which players have that ability and just need playing time to dominate. As I've said, I will give you guys to target here later on, but just know that this is when you can really make a difference. Usually in these late rounds, I will grab my kicker in the 11th (top guys are Neil Rackers, Adam Vinatieri, Mike Vanderjagt, David Akers), then I want to get the top backups to my two starting RBs in the 12th-13th. If you have the backup to your main guys, then an injury during the year isn't going to kill your chances. Obviously any astute owner who picked up Larry Johnson in the late rounds last year was breathing much easier when Priest Holmes went down, because he knew LJ could do the job. This year (if Holmes plays) the opposite may be true, where the smart owner picks up Holmes late to back up Johnson. I would also try to get a 3rd QB, 1-2 more WRs, and the best available defense in the last rounds, as depth is very important once we hit the bye weeks.
Bye weeks are a huge factor during the fantasy season, and one thing you need to have in front of you when you draft is a list of when each team has its bye. You don't want to draft a lot of guys who have the same bye week because that's most likely going to kill your chances at winning that particular week. Try to sprinkle it out so at most you only have two guys out.
As I said, I will give rankings for each position as we get closer to the season, beginning next week with the RB. Check back each week as I'll do a different position and then I'll give you and update on all positions as the preseason ends. If you want specific fantasy advice, feel free to e-mail me at fantasysensei@cox.net, and good luck!
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
Poker Betting Column
Here is the latest article from the Poker Betting Column at The Betting Directory
Recreational Poker
This article won’t teach you strategy or fancy tricks. This is just a psychological opinion piece on the different reasons that people play recreational poker. You will often find that each individual's reason for playing is characteristic of the type of player that he or she is.
Parts of society see the game of poker as a pure gamble and a waste of money. They think that all poker players are in it for financial reasons. These types of people, to an extent, miss the point.Only a handful of professional poker players actually earn a full-time living by playing poker. The most common reasons for playing recreational poker, aside from money, are social interaction, entertainment and education.
Social interaction is one of the most common reasons for playing recreational poker. This is a game where about 8-10 random players are sitting around a table together for hours on end. There are generally never any age restrictions in poker games as long as you’re old enough to enter the casino. By sitting down at any random casino poker table, you might meet the most diverse group of nine strangers you’ve ever seen together in your life.The game of poker is a very interactive and socially rewarding game. Even outside of actual casinos, home poker games are an extremely popular type of social activity seen around the globe. Playing poker is a very social experience.
Entertainment is another of the most common reasons for playing recreational poker. The game of poker is generally fairly competitive, on a friendly level.To win at poker, a player needs skill and, sometimes, a bit of luck. Many players get the same type of entertainment value out of playing poker as they would with playing any type of sport. Compared to similar forms of entertainment, remember that in poker you can lose money. People who play poker for pure entertainment value usually play at lower limits where not much money is at stake. Playing poker is a very entertaining experience.
Education is the final, most common reason for playing recreational poker. The game of poker relies heavily on skill and only slightly on luck. Poker can teach people many different skills that can be used outside of a poker table such as logic, math and psychology. When playing poker, players are constantly learning new things. Whether it’s how to calculate odds or how to determine when a player is bluffing, poker is full of education.I’ve learned some extremely important life lessons while playing the game of poker. It can be a very educational experience.
As you can see, there are many different reasons for playing recreational poker.Bottom line, every player has their own reasons on why they play. You’ve now been introduced
to three very common reasons to play recreational poker, but you haven’t learned them all. In the end, each player’s reasoning is a personal matter, and every player is different.
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
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Sunday, July 16, 2006
New sportsbook and casino
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New sportsbook and casino
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Saturday, July 15, 2006
Learn to play Poker!
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By offering sponsorships to live tournaments to their top players, PokerSchool Online creates an environment of competition comparable to real money sites with the exception that it won't cost a real money fortune.
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The instructors at PokerSchool Online are some of the best offered in the poker world. They are not only good poker players, but good teachers.
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Saratoga Springs - July 26th
Grand Old Saratoga Opens 36-Day Meeting on July 26
Saratoga Springs has been attracting travelers even before the American Revolution, when wealthy pilgrims journeyed to the carbonated mineral springs running through the area.
It’s where decisive battles were fought during the American Revolution and Civil War. The 1777 Battle of Saratoga, considered the first colonial victory and a turning point in the Revolutionary War, ended with General John Burgoyne surrendering his British troops.During the Civil War, America’s oldest thoroughbred racetrack opened on Aug. 26, 1863. The Saratoga Racing Association bought 71 acres to other land already set for racing. On Aug. 1, 1864, a new course was established in almost the same spot as today’s Saratoga.
New York Racing Association (NYRA) officials have announced across-the-board purse increases for the 36-day meeting than opens July 26. All classes of races will receive increases, said Bill Nader, NYRA senior vice president.“There are a lot of changes on this schedule, including some purse reductions or eliminations of stakes, but we made sure that NYRA’s commitment to excellence remains intact,” he said. “The overall dollar reduction in stakes is nearly $4 million, but much of that money will be added back in overnight stakes.
“This helps NYRA strike a better balance with dollars allocated to stakes and overnight races, and be more responsive to the available horse inventory from meet to meet.While the NYRA usually boosts purses each year at Saratoga, Nader said, this year “the increases are much more robust.”
Overnight stakes will carry purses of $70,000, a hike of $5,000. New York-bred races will see sizable increases compared with the current Belmont meeting. Maiden special weight races will jump $6,000 to $47,000, while purses in first-level allowance contests will skyrocket $9,000 to $50,000.The NYRA will also continue to raise the purse of any race with at least eight horses that’s moved off the turf by 20 percent in hopes of deterring scratches, a policy launched this year at Belmont.
The prestigious $500,000 Woodward for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles was moved to Saratoga on Sept. 2 to spread out the more important handicap races. The Saratoga Breeders’ Cup Handicap was eliminated to make room for one of the 15 Grade 1 events included in the array of 47 stakes.There’s at least one stakes race on every live racing program and two on eight days during the meeting that ends Sept. 4.
For handicap horses, the summer/fall schedule from Saratoga through Belmont Park’s meeting, including the 52nd Woodward, features the $750,000 Whitney at 1 1/8 miles on Aug. 5 at Saratoga and the $750,000 Jockey Gold Cup at 1 ¼ miles on Oct. 7 at Belmont.
Highlight of the meeting is the 137th Travers, the oldest American stakes race, named for the founder of Saratoga. The $1 million contest at 1 ¼ miles honoring William R. Travers will feature the outstanding sophomores of ’06 and help decide top 3-year-old honors.
Expected to show up on Aug. 26 at the historic track 180 miles north of New York City are:
Bernardini, winner of the Preakness; Jazil, who captured the Belmont; Bluegrass Cat, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby behind injured Barbaro and second in the Belmont; Steppenwolfer, third at Churchill Downs and fourth in the Belmont; and Sunriver, third in the Belmont.
Kentucky, owned by Travers, won the inaugural running in 1864 when the purse was only $2,940. The fastest time was posted by General Assembly in 1979: two minutes flat.
The largest margin of victory was recorded in ’67 by Damascus: 22 lengths. Seven times a nose has separated the top two finishers.
Monday, July 03, 2006
Smile Sprint handicap
Return Of A Champion
The richest day in racing for sprinters will feature Eclipse Award winning Lost in the Fog at Calder Race Course on July 15.The son of Lost Solder, victorious last year by more than seven lengths while shattering the $300,000 Carry Back Stakes record by nearly a second in 1:09 1/5, is expected to go in the $500,000 Smile Sprint handicap at six furlongs.
The dark bay colt won 10 in row as a 3-year-old in 2005 before fading to seventh after setting the pace until the stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last fall. Carrying 124 pounds, he captured the $150,000 Aristides Breeders’ Cup Handicap by 1 ¼ lengths, covering the six furlongs at Churchill Downs in 1:08 2/5.Trainer Greg Gilchrist said only one thing could prevent Lost in the Fog from coming to South Florida: weight.
“There are other races to look at, including one at Hollywood Park, but the timing is good, six weeks from the Aristides, to come back to Calder,” Gilchrest told the Daily Racing Form. “And I'm not really concerned with who else is coming. We’ve always thrown our hat in the ring and said, ‘This is where we’re going,’ and it’s up to the other people to decide whether they want to come or not.“For the most part our decision will probably depend on the weights. Lost in the Fog probably deserves to pick up a pound off his last race. But I’m already spotting everybody eight or nine pounds every time he runs, so there is really only so much weight we can handle.”
Lost in the Fog, working well at Golden Gate Fields, most likely would be the only returning winner from last year’s card of eight stakes worth nearly $2 million. But in the Smile he’ll face formidable opposition such as Mister Fortis, fourth last year behind the favored Woke Up Dreamin.The 5-year-old is one of three runners trained by Marty Wolfson. However, Mister Fortis finished fourth behind the favored Woke Up Dreamin in the ’05 Smile. The winner, who covered the six furlongs in 1:09 4/5, was retired late last year.
Mister Fortis ran ninth in the Commonwealth BC at Keeneland on April 15 after taking the Richter Scale BC on March 4 at Gulfstream Park.The other Wolfson trainees are Chandtrue, who finished off the board this year in two overnight stakes at Calder, and Pomeroy, who hasn’t run since undergoing minor surgery for a chip in his ankle after failing to hit the board in the Vosburg on Oct. 1 at Belmont Park .
The other stakes, in addition to the Smile and Carry Back, both Grade 2s, include:The $500,000 Princess Rooney Handicap at six furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up, bumped up to a Grade 1, went last year to heavily favored Madcap Escapad by 5 ¼ lengths. The winner, who covered the distance in 1:09 4/5, was retired later in ’05.
The $300,000 Azalea Breeders’ Cup at six furlongs for 3-year-old fillies, a Grade 3 event, was taken in ’05 by Leave Me Alone.The $100,000 Calder Turf Sprint Handicap at five furlongs for 3-year-olds and up was won last year by Southern Cal.
By Greg MelikovWagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
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Fantasy Basketball Tip of the Week
In a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, it is much easier to make up ground in certain categories. If you are currently lagging in saves, strikeouts or stolen bases, you have some hope. If you trail in batting average, ERA, or WHIP, you will have a harder time catching up. The best thing you can do to get that nudge toward the top is to evaluate each category separately and determine how many points you need to move up a couple of spots within each category. Once you’ve done that, then you can target players on the waiver wire who will help you.
If you need help in saves, the easiest thing to do is to evaluate each team’s closer. Are they in danger of losing their job? There probably won’t be many players currently on waivers who have a lot of saves, but by knowing who could lose their job, you can pick up their replacement. Usually players to target here are the guys who pitch in the 7th-8th innings for their teams and have good ERA/WHIP, so check the box scores and the daily papers (online) to see which closers are in trouble.
If you need help in strikeouts, ERA or WHIP, you might need to revamp your pitching staff. If you are doing well in wins and are lagging in ERA/WHIP, then instead of holding mediocre starting pitchers, target the top middle relievers in the game. Some middle relievers get almost as many innings pitched as the lower-end starters, so those guys will be much more valuable to you. Middle relievers are also the one group of players where the best in the game might be available on waivers. Do a sort on your league stats by ERA and WHIP, and you will see there are plenty of guys out there who get a lot of relief innings and have very good numbers.
Some of these middle relievers might also get you as many wins as your starters. For a long time this year, the league leader in wins was Oscar Villarreal, a middle reliever for the Braves. The best way to get help in strikeouts is to look at the ratio of strikeouts per inning pitched for each available pitcher, and then research how many innings they will give you. Again in this category, a dominant middle reliever might get you just as many strikeouts as a fifth starter, with much better ERA/WHIP numbers.
For hitting, stolen bases are the easiest category to gain ground quickly since there are relatively few guys who get a lot of them. The key is to know when a guy who has a lot of speed suddenly gets an increase in playing time.
Following daily player news and watching box scores should help you there as well. To know who the speed merchants are, look at a player’s stolen bases vs. how many games he has played and then when those players with a good ratio get more time, jump on them.
The power categories (homers, runs, RBIs) are usually plentiful on the waiver wire. You are not going to find the guys who will hit 40 HRs a year, but there are almost always guys who can fill in and give you 15-20. Usually these guys will have a low batting average to go with the power (that’s why they aren’t already on someone’s team) but if you can withstand the hit to your average, load up on the taters and RBIs.
Batting average is the hardest category to make up ground because almost all the players who have good averages are taken. There might be players out there who will hit .320 or .330 in a part-time role, but because they only play part-time they will hurt you in the other categories. They end up hurting you overall. If you are already low in batting average, the best strategy might be to just tank the category and focus on getting as many power and speed guys as you can and make up the points that way.
Here are a handful of players in each category that may be available to help you down the line:
Saves: Jeremy Accardo, Mike MacDougal, Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya, Jose Valverde, Todd Coffey, Francisco Cordero, Eddie Guardado, Taylor Tankersley, Shawn Camp, Logan Kensing.
Middle Relievers/Sleeper Starters (good for ERA/WHIP/Ks): Chad Billinglsey, Scott Linebrink, Josh Hancock, Pedro Feliciano, Carlos Marmol, Rafael Soriano, Alay Soler, Juan Rincon, Bob Howry, Luis Vizcaino, Jonathan Broxton, Jon Rauch, Elizardo Ramirez, Juan Cruz
Stolen Bases: Kenny Lofton, Chris Burke, Craig Counsell, Josh Barfield, So Taguchi, Freddie Bynum, Pablo Ozuna
HR/R/RBIs: Brandon Inge, Phil Nevin, Jacque Jones, Adam LaRoche, Eric Byrnes, Kevin Mench, Dave Ross, Ryan Zimmerman, Craig Monroe, Mike Jacobs, Joe Crede, Juan Encarnacion, Mike Cuddyer, Adrian Gonzalez
Batting Average: Reed Johnson, Matt Diaz, Freddy Sanchez, Ben Broussard, Mark DeRosa, Jamey Carroll, Eduardo Perez, Marcus Thames.
By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
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