Poker Betting Column
The
Poker Betting Column has been replaced by our blog - The
Poker Blog, on which you can find informative articles and news
from leading poker experts to help you learn how to play poker online,
to help you make more informed bets, increase your edge and chances
of poker betting success together with details of the latest bonuses
and tournaments.
For
articles and information from prior to January 2008, see the index on
the right.
Check
out the Wise Hand of
The Day -
a professionally written analysis of the poker hands that happened on
the biggest tournaments in the World.
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The
G-Spot: Pleasure Your Poker Playing Profits
By
Tony Guerrera
Counter
Intelligence Operations: Deception
If
your opponents play systematically, you can eventually break their
systems down and deduce counterstrategies to beat them. And as much
as poker players love to think that their opponents are bad, the fact
is that your opponents aren’t complete morons. If you play systematically,
most of your opponents will deduce counterstrategies to beat you.
To
consistently win, you need to lean one way while your opponents think
you’re leaning the opposite way. You need to induce your opponents
into making big mistakes in big pots, and your ally on that front
is deception. I’m not talking about the blatantly transparent “weak
means strong” and “strong means weak” psychology that makes beginners
stick out as much as American pop stars who’ve skated through life
without rehab or jail. Instead, I’m talking about employing inherently
deceptive betting patterns.
Mapping
Actions to Situations
One
way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate actions
with situations. Suppose you call a bet out of position with nothing,
check the turn, and then make a half-pot bluff on the river after
your opponent checks behind on the turn. The hand tells your opponent
that this betting pattern corresponds to a float. Later, you can catch
this opponent off guard by employing this same betting pattern when
you have a good hand. You’ll get value from your opponent if he has
a mediocre hand, and if you’re really lucky, you might induce your
opponent into attempting a rebluff on the river into what’s actually
your made hand.
Mapping
Situations to Actions
The
other way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate situations
with actions. After opponents see you play a situation a certain way,
many will assume that you always play the same situation the same
way. Suppose that you flop bottom set against two opponents, and you’re
first to act. You check-call the flop, check-raise the turn, and bet
out on the river. Provided they’re paying attention, your foes will
now associate this betting pattern with really solid hands. Next time
you have a monster, change things up and bet out on the flop, the
turn, and the river.
Keep
‘Em Guessing
Once
you start playing tougher foes, you can’t play according to a predictable
algorithm. And that includes employing a predictable algorithm for
mixing up your play. For example, if you play every single
hand identically, you’re being predictably deceptive, and your opponents
will correctly assume that they’re playing against a random hand every
time they’re in a pot with you. You need deception to win, and the
best way to be deceptive is to come to the table armed with a wide
range of plays.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Titan
Poker guarantees $10,000,000 in tournament pool
Titan
Poker, the largest poker room on the iPoker Network, now guarantees
more than $10,000,000 in monthly online poker tournaments.
The
guaranteed prize pools at Titan Poker are rising on a weekly basis,
based on the rapidly growing number of players that regularly play
poker at the popular online poker room.
Titan
Poker staged a $1,000,000 Guaranteed Prize tournament on December
9, as part of its European Championship of Online Poker 2007 (ECOOP)
tournament series. The highly successful ECOOP tournaments proved
to be this year's biggest online poker event with more than $2,500,000
in Guaranteed Prizes in ten consecutive days of poker tournaments.
Every
Sunday night Titan Poker stages a huge guaranteed prize tournament
with $200,000 in cash prizes. Huge cash prizes are also awarded at
tournaments that take place on Fridays and Saturdays, and daily tournaments
award prizes suitable to poker players with different gaming preferences
and budgets.
Titan
Poker regularly awards its players with seats at the world's most
well-known poker tournaments. Titan Poker players have played at the
World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, international tournaments of the
World Poker Tour, and at various European Poker Tour events.
The
G-Spot: New Year; Fresh Perspectives
By
Tony Guerrera
2008
is here. Every New Year, people make resolutions. “I’m going to exercise
five times per week.” “I’m going to read a two books per month.” Often,
people lack the commitment necessary to follow through, and come February
or March, many of these January go-getters will have reverted back
to their old habits.
New
Year’s resolutions are typically about breaking old habits, and poker
exemplifies a setting where breaking old habits is difficult–especially
if you massively multitable when playing online. Massively multitabling
isn’t inherently bad–I do quite a bit of it myself. But if you’re
not careful, you can fall into a rut where you can’t break away from
autopilot poker, making it extremely tough to adapt to changing playing
conditions. Even if you don’t play eight tables of online poker simultaneously,
it’s easy to settle into a comfortable rut where you cling to old
ideas, refusing even to consider the potential importance of new,
unconventional ideas that challenge what you’ve held dear for so long.
We
shouldn’t need a special time of year to change how we think, but
sometimes we need a kick in the butt, and the New Year is just that
kick. Whether you’re shoveling snow or sipping Mai Tais while catching
some rays, the New Year is a great time to initiate the self-improvement
process. And with just a little discipline, you can take the new and
improved you well beyond February or March.
Since
this is a poker article, here are some poker thoughts to take into
2008:
Respect
and Enjoy the Poker Playing Process:
Poker hand are all about getting your chips in when you think you
have the best of it–and having the best of it is all about the long-term.
Sometimes, an opponent with a distribution that you dominate will
have a superior hand. Sometimes, you’ll lose even when you get all
the chips in as a huge favorite. If you think about the short-term,
you’re toast. Regardless of the results, enjoy the intellectual exercise
that poker presents.
A
Few Extra Seconds of Thought Can Mean a Few Extra Dollars of Profit
Even when a decision seems trivial, take a few moments to consider
all the angles. Thoroughly deconstruct things before acting; something
that appears to be trivial on the surface can feature many subtle
layers of complication beneath the surface.
You
Can’t Play If There’s No You To Play
You can’t play if you’re sick or dead. Many players don’t take care
of themselves, but you don’t have to join the bandwagon. Avoid all-nighters,
eat properly, hydrate yourself, and get some exercise. Take care of
yourself physically, and your poker mind will reward you.
May
your 2008 feature happiness, good health, and monster profits at the
tables…Happy New Year!
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Bad
Beat Jackpot players claim millions
Online
poker players have one more reason to break out the champagne this
New Year, thanks to Absolute Poker. The online poker room recently
released its 2007 Bad Beat Jackpot figures and the numbers are undeniably
impressive.
"2007
was an extremely profitable year for our Bad Beat Jackpot players,"
stated David Clainer, Senior Vice President for Absolute Poker. "In
just six months, we introduced the Bad Beat Jackpot game to US players,
handed out over $6.5 million in Bad Beat Jackpot winnings, and broke
an industry record."
2007
was an extremely profitable year for our Bad Beat Jackpot players
Absolute Poker introduced Bad Beat Jackpot to its lineup of online
poker games on June 22nd, 2007. Since then, Absolute Poker has become
one of the most popular destinations for players looking to grab a
piece of the multi-million dollar Bad Beat Jackpot pie. A glance at
the 2007 Bad Beat Jackpot data released today reveals the following
numbers:
- 39 - The number
of jackpots that have been hit since Absolute Poker launched Bad
Beat Jackpot on June 22nd.
-
$8,555,664
- The total value of all jackpots hit
-
$6,581,280
- The total value of jackpot money won by players
-
$821,670.69
- The August 29th Bad Beat Jackpot that shattered all industry records,
including the largest Bad Beat Jackpot record of $739,621 previously
held by Party Poker.
Bad
Beat Jackpot is just like regular Texas Hold'em but with a slight
twist. When seated at a Bad Beat Jackpot table, if a player loses
a Texas Hold'em hand holding four 8s or anything better, they'll win
a large piece of the Bad Beat Jackpot.
To
help the jackpot build, $0.50 is collected from qualifying hands at
Bad Beat Jackpot tables. The jackpot keeps growing until someone hits
a qualifying bad beat, at which time a large percentage of it is distributed
amongst the bad beat victim and the participants in the online poker
hand. The next player to lose a hand holding four 8s or anything better
will win a large piece of the new jackpot. The participants in the
bad beat hand will also share in the jackpot.
The
G-Spot:Beware Early Position Limpers
By
Tony Guerrera
Blinds
are T1000-T2000. You’re in the fifth hour of a no-limit hold’em tournament
that’s down to 40 of its 500 original entrants. You have 7 opponents
at your table. A new hand is dealt. The under-the-gun player (UTG)
limps with a T25,000 stack. The T8,000 stack two to his left shoves
all-in. PAction folds to you, and you’re in the big blind with T30,000.
You have 99.
Accumulate
Chips, But Do So Cautiously
To
do well in poker tournaments, you need to accumulate chips. And accumulating
chips means getting your chips in when you’re ahead of your opponents’
distributions. With your 99, you’re almost certainly ahead of the
all-in player’s distribution. Unfortunately, the UTG limper is still
in the hand, and he completely changes the dynamics of the hand. Before
making any decisions, you need to consider his hand distribution.
In
the absence of any other evidence, you have to assume that the UTG
limper has a huge hand. Poker Players who limp from early position
when the blinds are high typically have big hands. This is especially
true of players with very short stacks, but it’s pretty much true
regardless of the limper’s stack size. Early position limpers in high
blind tournament play are looking to get value from their premium
hole cards, and they assume that they won’t get any action if they
raise from early position, figuring that an early position raise would
betray the strength of their hand.
Discipline,
Discipline, Discipline
If
you’re new to the table and know nothing about the UTG limper, you
need to lay your 99 down. Honestly, JJ and even QQ are hands that
you should probably lay down in this spot. The only way you can justify
putting any chips in this pot is if the UTG limper has been a habitual
limper…a player who has been limping a few times per orbit.
This
article is specifically about early position limpers in high blind
tournament play, but as usual, there’s a more generalized lesson to
be learned. Whenever you’re in a hand, one seemingly tiny change to
a scenario can have a huge effect on your optimal course of action.
A player who typically opens to 5 big blinds changes things up and
opens to 3.5 big blinds. What’s the significance? Pay attention to
every possible detail, and separate the meaningful information from
the random smoke that means nothing.
Eat
properly, stay hydrated, and get enough rest, so you can play as alertly
and effectively as possible!
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

50%
Refill Bonus!
Until
December 23rd, all players who have previously deposited at Suite332
are eligible for a 50% DAILY bonus on their daily deposits (Maximum
1 bonus/day), up to $500/day!
Simply
deposit between this Thursday, September 20th 12:01AM Eastern Standard
Time and Sunday, December 23rd 11:59PM Eastern Standard Time to be
eligible!
To redeem your bonus, please send an email to service@suite332.com
after you've made your deposits for the day at Suite332.com.
Your bonus will be credited shortly!
Daily
bonus period is counted using Eastern Standard Time from 12:01am 11:59pm.
Your initial wagering on your deposit prior to bonus crediting will
be counted!
Wagering
requirements on the bonus are the regular 20X Deposit + Bonus amount
(Virtual Suite) and 40X Deposit + Bonus amount (Live Suite). Please
take the time to read our bonus redemption conditions (Last updated
August 20th) on our Bonus Policies page. Please note that this promotion
cannot be combined with other Suite332.com bonus offers.

The
G-Spot: Finding Greener Grass
By
Tony Guerrera
You’re
playing poker online, and normally, online poker hands is all about
instant gratification (like online anything else). But this time you’re
actually stuck waiting for a seat to open up in your game of choice:
6-max $100NL hold’em. After the longest minute of waiting in your
life, you take a seat at your new table
Tough
Start
Your
elation is quickly eclipsed by disappointment. Occasionally, getting
caught bluffing or calling with the worst hand can have a positive
impact on your table image. However, getting off to a really bad start
is a very difficult handicap to shed, and it’s one that you’ve just
given yourself in your first 10-15 minutes at the table – having dumped
$200 on some very poor play.
You’re
not handicapped because of the money you’ve already lost, and how
you’ll have to play winning poker hand from this point forward just
to have a shot at breaking even for the session. Remember, each session
is just part of the proverbial life-long session. Instead, you’re
handicapped because of the psychological edge that your opponents
currently have over you. They are mentally alert – like sharks honing
in for the kill. You are dumbfounded, as if you just took a surprise
punch to the stomach.
You
look at the lobby to see if any other 6-max $100NL hold’em seats have
opened. Unfortunately, all the tables are still full, and you put
yourself on the 6-max $100NL hold’em waiting list.
Just
Leave
Congratulations
for being honest about your situation and realizing that you need
to find a different table. With so many poker sites, and so many tables
at each site, there’s never a need to battle through a bad table image
that you create from a few early mistakes. The mistake that everyone
makes here, and the one that I want you to avoid, is continuing to
sit and play at the really tough table you’ve created for yourself
while you wait for your seat at another table. Leave your bad table
immediately, and give yourself a few moments to compose yourself
so that you can enter your new table with a refreshed mindset.
Discipline
Not
playing beyond your bankroll; not becoming a compulsive gambler; having
the willingness to lay down a great hand to an even better hand; table
selection. A profitable poker player is a disciplined poker player.
When the grass isn’t very green where you currently are, get up and
find some greener grass.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Empty
Santa’s Sack!
Xmas comes
only once a year, and CarbonPoker
is dedicated to spreading the generosity and Xmas cheer amongst
their fantastic community of players. For the entire month December
they’re offering Xmas prizes and bonuses to keep the party rolling
all the way to 2008. With a combination of surprise sng tables,
special deposit bonuses and a unique month-long scavenger hunt with
fantastic prizes, there’s something for everyone at CarbonPoker
this Xmas.
To kick
things off, they’ll be running a “Choose
Your Own $12,500 Seat” initial deposit bonus, with the instant
potential to win a live tournament package worth
$12,500!
Simply
make an initial deposit of $100 or more throughout December and
you will receive a special freeroll entry coupon to the “Choose
Your Own Seat Freeroll”. For full details, check out the official
promotion page for the December “Choose Your Own Seat” adventure.
It’s
now time to deck the halls and decorate the tree, because Xmas at
CarbonPoker starts right now!

G-Spot:
Quickly Estimating Your Opponents’ Folding Percentages
By
Tony Guerrera
Getting
opponents to fold to your aggression is important in all forms of
poker hands, but particularly the shovefest that defines the endgame
of most tournaments. The methodology in this article will allow you
to estimate your probability of winning uncontested to within a few
percent.
Assign
Distributions
To
estimate your fold equity, first assign hand distributions and calling
distributions to your opponents. Suppose action folds to you in the
cutoff, and you have 75s. Since your opponents haven’t acted yet,
their hand distributions are [All]. If you push all-in, you believe
that all your opponents will call with [AA-55, AK-AT].
You
know your 2 hole cards, so 50 cards remain. There are 1,225 total
combinations of 2 hole cards from a 50 card deck (commit this number
to memory). For pocket pairs in your opponents’ distributions, there
are 6 combinations, 3 combinations, or 1 combination, depending on
if the pocket pair has 0, 1, or 2 cards in common with your hole cards.
In this example, [AA-88,66] represent 6 combinations each. And [77,55]
represent 3 combinations each. For unpaired hole cards, take the number
of the first card available and multiply by the number of the second
card available. In this example, your 75s doesn’t counterfeit any
of the AK-AT hands, so each of those hands has (4)(4) = 16 combinations.
Multiply
This
isn’t exact, but to find the probability that all your opponents will
fold, simply multiply all your opponents’ folding probabilities. For
example, if P(A) is probability that Player A will fold and P(B) is
the probability that Player B will fold, the probability that both
players will fold is P(A)P(B).
In
this example, each player has the same calling distribution, so P(Fold)
is be the same for each. To find P(Fold), first find the total number
of calling combinations. In this example, that number is 118. Since
there are 1225 combinations total, this means that your opponents
are folding 1225 – 118 = 1,107 combinations. P(Fold) for each poker
player is 1,107/1,225. The probability that all three players will
fold is (1,107/1,225)(1,107/1,225)(1,107/1,225).
Of
course, these really big numbers are tough to multiply in your head.
So to get a quick estimate, say that 1,107/1,225 is close to 1,100/1,200
which is close to 11/12 which is about .92 which is about .9. (.9)(.9)(.9)
is .729, meaning that you’ll win uncontested about 73% of the time.
Be
Comfortable With Estimating
73%
might not be the true percentage that all your opponents will fold.
But at most, it’s only off by a few percent. When you’re in the heat
of battle, you need to make educated decisions in compressed time
frames. Using estimates is a great way to make sure that you’re at
least in the ballpark. Play smart, and enjoy the rewards!
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

The
G-Spot: Beware Sudden Aggression On The Turn And River
By
Tony Guerrera
Very
early this morning (11/28/2007), I was coaching a shorthanded $100
no-limit hold’em player on Bodog Poker. Because I was sick and trying
to keep track of all three of his tables, I don’t remember the precise
board poker hands involved. But I do remember the action that took
place.
The
flop was something like 9?6?3?. I just remember that it was a nine-high
board, and that the board was all hearts. My player had QJ, and after
raising preflop from late position, he was heads-up with position.
Action went check-check on the flop (you don’t want to continuation
bet 100% of the time). An offsuit queen fell on the turn. The early
position player checked, my player bet around $4 into an approximately
$6 pot, and his opponent raised to about $9.
Before
I had a chance to tell my player that his pair of queens was no good,
my player said something like “what the hell can this guy have…this
guy has to be putting a move on me…I call.” The river was
some non-heart. My player’s opponent led about 1/3 pot, and my player
instacalled. My head was buried in my hands, and I didn’t need to
see the showdown, but I did want to see if his opponent had two pair,
trips, or a flushy flush. I looked at my screen, and saw that his
opponent had Q9…two pair.
The
player I coach is a winning player, but his game has some problems.
Occasionally, one of them is not giving opponents credit when they
show aggression on the turn and the river…especially when they haven’t
shown much interest in the hand to that point. Since working with
me, he’s much better about it, but occasionally, he gets stubborn
and thinks that everyone is suddenly “master of turn and river buffs.”
And of course, once he gets stubborn, I get to say “see, I told you
so” after the showdown…it’s amazing that I get paid to scold people
older than myself!
Most
poker players aren’t very tricky…especially if you’re playing $200NL
or below. They don’t like risking lots of chips on naked bluffs. Bets
on the turn and the river represent more monetary risk because the
bigger size of the pot demands bigger bets. If an opponent is making
large bets on the turn and the river, or if an opponent raises you
on the turn or the river, that player has at least two pair. This
is the default profile you should assign all opponents. Only
assume that a player is making moves when he’s habitually aggressive.
If a player only responds to aggression with aggression on the turn
and the river periodically, then credit him with the goods and move
on.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
New
Features at Full Tilt Poker
In
recent weeks, Full Tilt Poker have introduced some new features.
First
is the Knockout Bounty tournaments where a portion of each
prize pool is designated as a bounty on each player in the event.
The more players you knock out of a tournament, the more bounties
you'll win.
They
have also made it easier to find Pros in the game. Once players login
and open a tournament lobby highlighted in red, the pros that are
currently in that tournament will now be sorted at the top of the
list of players.
Players can also:
- Decide if they
want to show full tables for ring games
- Choose to see
the main lobby pop up when they close a table
- Decide between
three animation settings based on their computer's performance to
optimize their playing experience

The
Absolute Poker Turkey Bowl
Stuff
your face with cash.
Feast
your eyes on something incredible this Thanksgiving. Absolute Poker
is giving away $5,000 cash and to get in on the gravy, all
you have to do is hit the tables.
To
grab your seat in the Turkey Bowl, just play in at least 3,000 raked
hands between November 1st and 27th. That’s all there is to it.
We’ll
reserve your seat at our post-Thanksgiving table for our first annual
Turkey Bowl poker tourney. On the line? A $5,000 prize pool.
The
Absolute Poker Turkey Bowl takes place on December 1st at 14:00 ET.
Players who qualify by playing in at least 3,000 raked hands will
be notified by email. Registration opens at 20:00 ET on Friday, November
30th. The tournament is capped at 2,000 players so secure your seat
early.

The
G-Spot: Phantom Outs
By
Tony Guerrera
You’re playing no-limit Texas Hold’em you need good poker strategy.
The board is KD 5D 2H, and you have AD TD. Your opponent bets $20
into a $40 pot, and you call. The turn is the 6D. Your opponent checks,
you bet $30 into the $80 pot with your nut flush, and your opponent
folds.
You
weren’t paid off, but don’t sulk too much. You just got some valuable
information: your opponent seems apt to lay down hands against suspected
made draws. When drawing against him, you’ll need to reduce your implied
odds estimates. Drawing won’t be very profitable against him (if at
all), but a little creativity will allow you to make substantial profits
from him…
Represent!
If
your opponent associates a third diamond falling with you having a
flush and is willing to lay down his hand to a bet, does it matter
if you actually have a flush? Doyle Brunson said it best: “Poker is
a game of people played with cards.”
Poker
is about much more than your own hole cards. It’s about what hole
cards you put your opponents on, and it’s about your knowledge of
what your opponents think of you. If you know that an opponent will
lay down strong hands to a suspected flush whenever you bet after
the third to a suit falls, then you don’t actually need to have the
flush. No matter what your hole cards are, you can play the hand as
if you have a flush draw…even if you don’t!
Cards
that look to hit you hand (regardless of whether they actually do)
are referred to as Phantom Outs (I don’t know the first person to
have used this term, but I have a strong inkling that it’s my boy,
John Vorhaus). Phantom out bluffs are an important part of any advanced
player’s arsenal.
Wield
Wisely, And Know When To Defend
After
learning about advanced maneuvers such as phantom out bluffs, it’s
enticing to try them in a wide situations…even those in which they
won’t be profitable. The key to using phantom out bluffs profitably
is to use them against opponents who are willing to fold. Those who
respect aggression on the turn and the river are your primary targets.
Because
phantom out bluffs can be highly lucrative, it’s important to know
which of your opponents are capable of such trickery themselves. When
holding hands like top-pair-top-kicker against tricky opponents capable
of phantom out bluffs, adopt passive lines of play and allow your
opponents to bluff themselves into oblivion.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

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