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The Poker Betting Column- regular informative articles and poker news from leading poker experts to help you make more informed bets, increase your edge and chances of poker betting success. (don't forget to check out our informative articles to help improve your game - see the menu on the right) Bill Nevin, head of sports at BetUSA.com, assesses the betting on the 2006 World Series of PokerIt is not easy to predict the winner of the World Series of Poker. With an expected 8,000 runners some would argue that it is a lottery dressed up as the world’s richest poker tournament. But the fact is that the winner will have to be a good poker player and that it will take a lot more than pure luck to win the estimated $10 million first prize. Ten months ago BetUSA.com opened betting on the World Series with a list of 300 of the top players in the world. Since then we had been adding players each week and are now offering odds on more than 600 players. Phil Ivey is the 150-1 favorite, followed by Daniel Negreanu at 225-1, Phil Hellmuth and Howard ‘The Professor’ Lederer at 250-1 and Gus Hansen, Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson and John Juanda at 300-1. Last year’s champion, Joe Hachem, is on offer at 1000-1, even though he has two final tables to his name in the course of this year’s World Series. Many bracelet holders are on offer at odds of up to 2000-1, meaning that for a very small outlay you can have a huge payday if you are lucky enough to pick the winner. At BetUSA.com we have found that our clients are picking out a ‘team’ of 10 players and having $5 or $10 on each, in the hope that one of them can win. We also offering odds on all 600+ players listed to make the final table, so often clients are betting their selections to ‘win’ and ‘show’ (ie to get to the final table). Some people have asked us: “How can any player be as low as 150-1 in an eight thousand player event?” The answer to this is twofold. The first is what odds would you make Phil Ivey? This usually provokes the person to say 2000-1 or so but they become curiously reluctant to allow anyone to have a bet at those odds. When I have offered to back Ivey at 500-1 or 250-1 they also refuse, which suggests that 2000-1 is not the correct price! In our view Phil Ivey is easily the best no limit poker player in the world. He plays relatively few tournaments but those he takes part in he tends to do well – witness his 3rd place finish in this year’s $50k H.O.R.S.E event in which many felt he was unlucky not to win it. Is Phil Ivey 50 times better than the average player in the $10k main event at the World Series? Yes, we think possibly he might be. The second reason some of the players are relatively short odds is simply a question of supply and demand. The big name players like Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth and Dan Harrington are constantly shown on television and as a result bettors know their names and want to have a bet. Given how quickly we can build up an enormous liability at odds of 1000-1 or even 500-1, if the bets come in for those players then we do have to cut the odds. At the moment we are facing high six figure payouts on 23 players, which gives you some idea of how much the power of television influences people’s betting on the World Series. Probably the best value is to find a player who is relatively unfashionable and does well in the serious cash games and so plays relatively few tournaments. Sure you are going to have to get lucky to find the winner but if you do you are going to be paid handsomely for your luck! BetUSA.com betting on World Series of Poker main event (all bets action) Phil Ivey 150-1 Daniel Negreanu 225-1 Phil Hellmuth 250-1 Howard (The Professor) Lederer 250-1 Gus Hansen 300-1 Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 300-1 John Juanda 300-1 Layne Flack 400-1 Marcel Luske 400-1 Barry Greenstein 400-1 Carlos Mortenson 400-1 Scotty Nguyen 400-1 Sam Farha 400-1 Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 400-1 Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 400-1 Michael Mizrachi 400-1 Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 500-1 Phil (Unabomber) Laak 500-1 Erik Seidel 500-1 Huckleberry Seed 500-1 Johnny Chan 500-1 John (World) Hennigan 500-1 Men (The Master) Nguyen 500-1 Paul Phillips 500-1 Ram (Crazy Horse) Vaswani 500-1 TJ Cloutier 500-1 Dan Harrington 500-1 Annie Duke 500-1 Antonio Esfandiari 500-1 Doyle (Texas Dolly) Brunson 500-1 Check out the BetUSA site for the rest of the betting.
Recreational PokerAs an experienced recreational poker player, I’ve often been asked the question, “Why Play Poker?” This is is a fairly simple, straight-forward question that most players have been asked before. Surprisingly, when asked this question, many players turn up blank faces and have empty responses such as, “Because I enjoy it.” Obviously, money could be the answer for serious players, but not for most recreational players. This article won’t teach you strategy or fancy tricks. This is just a psychological opinion piece on the different reasons that people play recreational poker. You will often find that each individual's reason for playing is characteristic of the type of player that he or she is. Parts of society see the game of poker as a pure gamble and a waste of money. They think that all poker players are in it for financial reasons. These types of people, to an extent, miss the point. Only a handful of professional poker players actually earn a full-time living by playing poker. The most common reasons for playing recreational poker, aside from money, are social interaction, entertainment and education. Social interaction is one of the most common reasons for playing recreational poker. This is a game where about 8-10 random players are sitting around a table together for hours on end. There are generally never any age restrictions in poker games as long as you’re old enough to enter the casino. By sitting down at any random casino poker table, you might meet the most diverse group of nine strangers you’ve ever seen together in your life. The game of poker is a very interactive and socially rewarding game. Even outside of actual casinos, home poker games are an extremely popular type of social activity seen around the globe. Playing poker is a very social experience. Entertainment is another of the most common reasons for playing recreational poker. The game of poker is generally fairly competitive, on a friendly level. To win at poker, a player needs skill and, sometimes, a bit of luck. Many players get the same type of entertainment value out of playing poker as they would with playing any type of sport. Compared to similar forms of entertainment, remember that in poker you can lose money. People who play poker for pure entertainment value usually play at lower limits where not much money is at stake. Playing poker is a very entertaining experience. Education is the final, most common reason for playing recreational poker. The game of poker relies heavily on skill and only slightly on luck. Poker can teach people many different skills that can be used outside of a poker table such as logic, math and psychology. When playing poker, players are constantly learning new things. Whether it’s how to calculate odds or how to determine when a player is bluffing, poker is full of education. I’ve learned some extremely important life lessons while playing the game of poker. It can be a very educational experience. As you can see, there are many different reasons for playing recreational poker. Bottom line, every player has their own reasons on why they play. You’ve now been introduced to three very common reasons to play recreational poker, but you haven’t learned them all. In the end, each player’s reasoning is a personal matter, and every player is different. By Colin Fagras Bad Beats>“#$%(&%#(&$)@&!!!”, I said for what seemed like the 10th time. Yes, I just got sucked out again on the river by a 2-outer and have now lost my last four sit-and-go tournaments in the same way. The donkey across the table has pulled one of the two or three cards in the deck that they needed to beat me after the flop. Those are known as bad beats, and as any player who plays regularly can tell you it seems to happen all the time. Bad beats happen to the best poker players, the worst poker players, and everyone in between. There really isn’t a definition of what a bad beat is, but I would say it’s any time that you have your money in the pot and have at least a 75 percent chance of winning the hand. There are plenty of times where you have a 50/50, 55/45 or 60/40 chance of winning and you lose, but those aren’t really bad beats. They’re just part of the game. The times when you are in a “race” with someone, meaning one of you has a pocket pair and the other has two cards larger than your pair, are really not much more than a 50-55 percent chance for the person holding the pair to win. Also, a situation similar to this, where you have one overcard and your opponent has two cards higher than your kicker, you are only a 60 percent favorite to win. The bad beats I’m talking about are the ones where you dominate your opponent, either with a higher pocket pair than his, a pair with a higher kicker or some other situation where he is a huge underdog once all the money goes in. Those are the ones that make you feel like you’ve been punched in the gut when you lose, and your reaction to these bad beats can make or break you as a poker player. There is actually some good news in a continued string of bad beats. Bad beats happen to good players more often than they do to bad ones because the good players realize they have the best of it and get all their money in with the best hand more often. While a long run of beats will hurt your bottom line, you can take solace in the fact that you are playing solid poker. In the long run, getting your money in with the best hand a large percentage of the time is going to make you a ton of money. It’s hard to remember that sometimes when you’ve just been rivered, but if you can control your emotions and not go on tilt, you’ll be much better off. The key is just to tell yourself you made the right play and get on with it. One way to lessen the effect of a bad beat in a tournament is to try to stay away from going all-in as much as possible. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve suffered a stomach punch but still had enough chips to come back and do well. In fact, just the other day I was down to $40 in chips in a sit-and-go and came back to win. The saying “a chip and a chair” really does apply, so while you do want to maximize your profits when you have the best of it, you also want to try to insure that you don’t get yourself knocked out of a tournament if the fish catches what he’s looking for. You can be aggressive without over-betting. As I said, bad beats happen to everyone who sits down at the table, but if you can remember that they are part of the game, don’t go on tilt when they do happen, leave yourself some wiggle room, and know that you are actually playing very well, you can live to fight another day. By Chris Goudey
Aggression In Poker Is KeyWhen is a great opening poker hand a bad hand? The answer is pretty simple. A great opening poker hand is a bad hand when you play it poorly, and I recently saw a shining example of that. A couple of weeks ago I was in the poker room at Binion’s, playing on a $3-$6 limit Texas Hold’em table with the framed pictures of the previous World Series of Poker main events on the wall to the left of me. It really is an incredible place, and if you ever get the chance I highly recommend playing there. The casino doesn’t host the tournament anymore, but it has the pictures of all the winners when it did, and it is nice to see that piece of history. I was watching the eight other players until the blind got around to me. You have the option when you sit down of posting the big blind right away and playing immediately or waiting until it comes to you. I was four hands away from the big blind, so I decided to watch the action. A lot of players want to start playing right away and there probably isn’t anything wrong with that, but I prefer to watch some hands and get a feel for the table before putting out any chips. On the second hand I saw the guy with the button check his bet after three of the six previous players called the blind. The small blind called and the big blind raised. The other players who had previously called called again, except for the small blind who folded. The flop came 5d, 8h, 6h. The players all checked to the button, who bet $3. The big blind called, and one of the three players folded. The turn was a 10c. Again the players checked to the button, and he bet $6. The big blind raised another $6. That chased out the remaining two players and left only the button, who called the raise. The flop was a Qs. The action was on the big blind, and he bet $6. The button called and turned over a pair of aces. The big blind flipped up a 4h and 7c for a straight and took the pot. It was hard for me to believe what I saw. I couldn’t believe the button had played that hand so poorly. His first mistake was not raising on the opening bet. What two cards are better than a pair of aces? If you have the best hand, for God sakes, bet it. I would have probably raised on everything from a pair of 10s on up. I might not have the best hand with a pair of 10s, but chances are I am going to know where I stand with them. If someone comes over the top and re-raises me, I know that they have a pair as well. The possibility is there for someone with a better pair to check and try and slow play them, but I am getting to see a flop and maybe make a set. And this knucklehead was on the button! If ever there was a perfect situation to raise, it would be then. But by being too timid, he let the big blind see the flop for free. If he had raised the blind, unless he was playing with an equally poor player, the big blind would have folded. One or two of the other three players might have stuck around to see the flop, but when it came up 5d, 8h, 6h, it probably couldn’t have helped their hands and they would have folded. But with the big blind flopping a straight, he is sitting with two worthless aces. It could have been a real disaster if he had gotten an ace on the turn. Now he is thinking that he has a superior hand and could have lost a lot of money. Aggression in poker is key, and the big blind proved that by raising on the opening round with a worthless 4-7 off-suit. The big blind was as timid as a guy with 7-2 off-suit, and he got burned for it. He busted out shortly thereafter, which wasn’t a surprise. I just wondered if he learned anything from the experience. By
John Reger
Poker Tip of the Week: You Must Be Able To Afford To LoseIn
addition to my fantasy sports career (see my page on Inspin.com's Fantasy
section), I also make my living playing small-to-medium stakes poker
on several different sites (including Inspinpoker.com). I am a
winning player overall, and I will share some weekly tips with you that
help put some food on my table and some extra zeroes in my account. By Chris Goudey
An Early Guide To The 2006 World Series Of PokerWelcome to the poker betting column. Every week we will be analyzing recent player performances, the betting market and predicting future winners. Hopefully this column helps you make more informed bets, increases your edge and chances of poker betting success. It truly is a market where knowledge is money. Today, an overview of the upcoming World Series of Poker and a few points to remember when making your picks. The 2006 World Series of Poker is quickly approaching with an expected first-place prize of $10 million. Of course, that winner is going to have to battle through a grueling week of flush draws, open enders, 2 outers, cold decks and hot streaks. It will be a mental and physical roller coaster, testing a combination of skill, stamina, guts and luck. Almost all sportsbooks will be offering lines on the ‘winner’ market. Obviously this is the hardest pick to make, and therefore I’d advise choosing a few long shots rather than any top-ranked player. There is clearly little value backing Phil Ivey at 125 – 1 or even Dave Colcough at 80-1!! Not only are these terrible prices to begin with, but also the players may not even be on form or running well in and around the tournament. It’s always important to track each player's recent performances when gauging their chances of success. Poker players are a lot like horses in that recent form plays a huge part in how they perform. The best player in the world cannot beat cold decks or bad luck, and therefore running well is essential to having a real shot at winning. The five most important factors to consider when making your picks are: 1) Recent form – running well vs. being cold decked. 2) Hunger to win – any recent close wins fuel players' desire to win the next event they enter. 3) Skill/experience level – Players must be able to compete at the highest levels or at least have the guts to gamble. 4) Age – As the main event is expected to take nine days to complete (though there are multiple Day 1’s and 2’s), players must be physically and mentally fit, able to stay sharp throughout. Fatigue causes mistakes, and mistakes cost you tournaments. 5) Style of play – Weak/ tight vs. tight/aggressive. Here is a breakdown of those factors: 1. Recent Form: This is a key topic when analyzing the market and making your picks. Therefore, it is worth waiting until the last couple of days before the event to place your bets. We all know Ivey is widely regarded as the best player in the world, but even he will need to be focused and running well to win WSOP 2006. If he is too fatigued from the preliminary events and side action, then he will not be a serious contender. 2. Hunger to Win: Due to the volume of players entering the main event, competitiveness and hunger to win will play a vital role in players' chances of success. For example, a player who simply wants to go deep and cash out is limiting his or her success level as opposed to the player who is playing to win. Even though the tournament cannot be won in a single day, players still need to be pushing every edge they can, staying sharp throughout, picking up every possible chip. With so many chips in play, chip accumulation is vital – every day. Waiting for aces will not work. Remember, it is much easier to dominate the action at a table when you hold a large chip advantage, and if players can combine a large chip advantage with superior skill, there will be little that stands in the way of success, particularly if they are running well too! 3. Skill / Experience: Due to the volume of entrants, and the grueling nine-day schedule, skill and experience will be vital to staying alive in the tournament. Even though Chris Moneymaker miraculously won in 2003 with little to no experience, it is worth remembering that the field was less than 1,000 players then, as opposed to 6,500-plus this year. Therefore, players lacking in skill and experience will need to get lucky many more times than Moneymaker did. There are simply too many skilled players and chips in play for an unskilled newbie to cruise to victory. However, with the increased popularity in online poker, many young players have the skill and experience to compete against the older brick and mortar veterans – though any additional live experience Internet players have will be invaluable as many top online players fail to make the correct adjustments for live play. It's a lot easier to pull off a stone-cold bluff online than it is face to face! 4. Age: Again because of the schedule and necessity for mental and physical fitness, many of the great, experienced veterans will find it difficult to stay in contention throughout the main event. At the same time, an overly aggressive youngster lacking in experience may blow up too early after having dominated the action early on. So both ends of the age spectrum can be advantageous and disadvantageous – the key being to find the right balance and mental psyche in your player picks. 5. Style of play: Players will need to accumulate as many chips as possible at every opportunity while also avoiding the risk of elimination. Therefore a weak/tight strategy will not be successful. Tight, aggressive play will win this tournament and crown the new champion. (Be careful not to confuse fearlessness with recklessness when analyzing players). Good luck everybody, both playing and betting this week! By Ross Glacken
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