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The Poker Betting Column- regular informative articles and poker news from leading poker experts to help you make more informed bets, increase your edge and chances of poker betting success. (don't forget to check out our informative articles to help improve your game - see the menu on the right) Pelton Pays OffThe 2006 Legends of Poker World Poker Tour Championships have just ended, and a relatively unknown player, Joe Pelton, took the title and a cool $1.5 million. Joe battled through possibly the toughest final 50 players of any WPT event. The final 50 was a who’s who of poker, and on first glance it seemed unlikely anyone but a top pro would win --- but Joe proved that to be a total misconception.
Heading into the final 50 were such players as Tuan Lee (three-time WPT champion), James Van Alstyne (WPT champion), Huck Seed (WSOP champion), Hoyt Corkins (WPT champion), Scotty Nguyen (WPT Champion), John Juanda, Tim Phan, Barry Shulman ... and the list goes on. The fish were literally swimming with the sharks in contention for the title. But considering luck plays such a large part in poker, it could still be anyone’s game ... with a little luck and some moderate skill an amateur could come out on top, and against the odds that’s just what happened.
Speaking of odds, throughout the tournament there were daily updated odds available on all remaining players. While it may have been a +EV bet to place a few wagers on the top pros, perhaps the smarter bet is taking one or two long shots to go with it -- because when those bets come in, they will pay out huge.
There is often great value in some of the top names when they are a little short stacked, because it seems the sportsbooks compile their odds based almost entirely on chip equity and then reduce them slightly from there so as to make a profit in the long run. The same goes for the unknown players; their odds are enhanced so as to encourage punters to place a likely losing bet.
In this particular event it turned out that two of the well-known pros made it to the final table -- both having had multiple final placings and wins each. The players were Nguyen and Corkins. Unfortunately, Scotty was severely short stacked and therefore the sportsbooks were offering 12-1 on him, but Hoyt on the other hand had a slightly less than average chip count and was favorably (from the punters' point of view) priced at 7–1. This is where I see the sportsbooks slipping up a little and being misinformed on the players. Hoyt was the best situated player at the final table with all the skill and experience needed to wrap it up and take the title. Chip equity is relatively unimportant at this stage of the tournament as there is very little play left, so one or two double-ups for Hoyt, and it’s all over.
Unfortunately, Scotty could not overcome his short-stacked problems. Having roughly six big blinds, he did not have much room to make moves. He would have needed to double twice before even getting an average chip stack. So even though 12–1 is big odds in a six-man field, it was still not a great price to take.
As for Hoyt, he went out on a bad beat in third. Had he won that pot, he would surely have sealed the deal on the tournament. But those are the breaks in poker, you win some, you lose some, and unfortunately with a turn of a card it just wasn’t to be for Hoyt that night. However, I am still happy with the 7–1 odds and feel it was a +EV bet, considering his obvious skill and experience.
Ultimately there were many good prices available throughout the tournament, and if you were lucky enough to have randomly picked Pelton, then congratulations! Occasionally it really is worth writing the list of long shot players on a sheet of paper and throwing a dart at it and seeing if it’s your lucky day too! By Ross Glacken
Playing A Small StackIn my last poker tip article I explained how you should play a big stack in a no-limit hold 'em tournament. The primary example of this was how Jamie Gold kept his chip lead for the last few days of this year’s World Series of Poker by using it as a bludgeoning tool. He simply forced his opponents into folding by raising and re-raising time and again. While playing a big stack is great and makes you feel like a bully, most people are going to be playing a small stack more often than a big one. That’s why knowing how to play one is crucial to staying alive and hopefully acquiring a big stack later in the tourney. There is a famous quote that applies to this situation: “a chip and a chair,” and believe me, having at least one chip and still being in the tourney means you have a shot to win. Without sounding like an egomaniac, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been the short stack at the table and ended up winning the tournament. To me, if you are playing at a full table in a tourney, one has a short stack when their total chip count is no more than 10x the current big blind. If the blinds are 100/200 and you have less than 2,000, you are a shorty. The key to managing a short stack is patience. There are so many people whom I see going all-in with horrible hands simply because the blinds are coming around to them. The thing is, you are very likely to be called because people realize you are short and desperate and probably don’t have much. This is why patience is so important. If you do wait for a good hand, you are that much more likely to be called by someone who thinks you’ve got nothing. Your chances of doubling up and getting out of that short stack status increase exponentially. Of course, it’s very hard to sit there and wait and fold marginal hand after marginal hand, but in the long run it’s a better move in my opinion. This strategy applies only when you are playing at a full table, however. If you are at a final table or in a shorthanded game, you need to open up the cards you’ll go all-in with. It is less likely that someone has a better hand than you, so you can play more hands. At the point where you have less than 5-6 big blinds, you need to go all-in with whatever hand you play. Playing it coy just doesn’t give you the value you need. Go all-in and hope to get the blinds to fold. I still wouldn’t go all-in with anything less than a pocket pair or Q-10, but there is a range of hands that I would play at a shorthanded table that I wouldn’t play at a full table. Anything in that K-J, K-10, A-anything range would be an all-in at that point. At a full table and with less than 10x the big blind but more than 5x, I would play as I normally would, only playing premium hands and not calling with marginal hands, hoping to see flops. As you would at a shorthanded table, I’d go all-in with any hand I decided to play once I got below the 5x the big blind number. I’d still only play premium hands at a full table, but would have to go all-in under 5x. The other primary thing you have to look at as a short stack is your position at the table. If you are on the button, to the left of the button or in the small blind that definitely opens up the range of hands you can go all-in with as well. If it is folded all the way around to you, and you are in one of those three positions, you could go all-in with almost any two cards and be getting the correct value to do it. You’d need to pay attention to the players on your left to see if they play tight or loose to determine if you think they’d fold to your raise or call with almost anything. Playing the short stack takes a lot of patience, attention to your position and what you think will happen if you go all-in. All it usually takes for you to get back into the mix is being doubled up 2-3 times, so pick your spots, be aggressive and when you do strike, and hope the poker gods treat you well! By Chris Goudey
The Key to Being a Good Poker PlayerThe key to being a good online poker player is … Hold on, please,
while I am writing this article, I am also playing in a $50 sit and
go. Like I was just
writing, the key to being a good online poker player is… I guess I have to fold. For many online players, this scenario presents itself far too often. It’s the curse of the online player, being deeply involved in a big game but at the same time multitasking. The game takes a backseat to checking email, checking fantasy baseball stats, and checking out what exotic Russian women often do on the Internet. Therein lies a major problem for the horde of people playing poker online. A population that includes professional players, would-be professionals and a lot of thrill-seekers. It doesn’t take an expert commentator such as Norman Chad to look out at that playing field and forecast the winners are most likely those who devote most of their time and mental energy toward the games they are playing and not on ancillary activities. The key to being a good online player is to be focused. Playing online has its risks compared to live games. You can not get a true read on your opponents' habits; you can't form a model in your mind on how he/she plays because you can not see them and the way they conduct themselves; and you have no idea if he/she is just some loose player who likes throwing chips away. So taking into account these risks, if your attention easily sways away from the game, then trapdoors in front of you grow wider. Here are some ways to improve your online play.
There are plenty of weak players online, so pay attention and identify them early in the game. For those who spend a lot of time playing online, the games can be tedious. Instead of constantly checking your email, attempt another diversion like getting out of the chair and walking around. This will keep you fresh but also keep your mind on the game.
Take a shower and tend to your daily business. This will greatly improve your attention span so you can sit down at the computer and be free of a lingering notion that your daily tasks are still ahead of you. A good rule to give yourself is not to play until you have been wide awake for more than two hours. After you are awake and have tended to necessary business, an online game can be your only concern. The same logic holds true for the nighttime. Don’t fall into the bad habit of saying to yourself , “One quick game and then I will go to sleep.” If you are thinking that, then you are probably already tired and not at full capacity to play. Why put yourself in a position to be someone else’s ATM machine just because you want to play? A good poker player should want to play good poker, not just play poker. If you know a night’s sleep is only a few ticks away, you are more likely to make a bad decision and easily expose yourself to defeat. Instead of playing that last late night game, convince yourself you will be a better player tomorrow following a good sleep than your current state of drowsiness.
There is a reason why college students and professional players do so well online. It stems from their free time and their perspective of the game being the most important aspect of their life at that moment. While online, don’t make the mistake of doing a handful of other tasks while playing. You are likely going to lose to someone with a much different approach. By Aaron J. Moore Low To Medium Pocket PairsLow to medium pocket pairs. They’re a lot like the remnants at the bottom of a Chips Ahoy bag. You like the taste of them, but you would certainly prefer sitting in front of something larger and a little more substantial. A low to medium pocket pair often elevates a player to top position prior to the flop. Unfortunately, with so many over-cards floating around that tantalizing hand often goes sour. In order to understand the best way to play this hand, make sure you are well versed in the two general techniques employed when someone is holding a low to medium pocket pair. One option is to limp in and hope for trips to hit. The other is to make a substantial raise and chase away any callers. Neither of these techniques guarantees success, but your game will improve when you better understand the other factors surrounding your bargain basement pocket pair. So next time you’re in a no-limit game and see something resembling pocket 4s don’t immediately react as though you’ve won the lottery and overplay them (a common mistake for novice players). Instead, inhale gently and take inventory of your chip stack, position, style of game and opponents before deciding how to proceed. When you sneak into a hand without a raise and then hit a set, your opponents will have a lot of trouble putting you on that hand. Those with top pair and two of a kind will be beating into the trap you surreptitiously set for them. There is a reason pocket pairs are called silent killers. The odds of hitting
3-of-a kind on the flop with a pocket pair is nearly 11 percent. The same holds true if the flop brings a lot of high cards. Someone betting the board with a lot of high cards probably has you beat. The greatest advantage in coming in quietly with a low to medium pocket pair is how easy it is to walk away when re-raised a sizeable amount. Instead of committing too many chips to a hand that can go south real quick, it’s easy to fold this hand if you don’t make a large initial investment. I like the idea of “easy in – easy out” with low pocket pairs. Of course, chip stack is also important in how you play this hand. Usually low to medium pocket pairs generate the most action when it involves those with either the most or fewest chips. If you have a lot of chips you are in a position to gamble more, so these are good cards to use to push around the other less fortunate souls at the table. This hand is great for someone with a lot of chips because he is in a position to make a large bet and take away the pot odds for those on a draw. For those barely clinging to life, especially in a tournament, having a low pocket pair makes an all-in a solid play. Going all-in gives you a chance of taking the blinds and letting the others know you are dangerous enough that they should think twice about picking on you. If someone calls, you’re probably going to race with them, and if you are without a lot of chips this is one of your best-case scenarios. A double-edged sword also exists when you go into overdrive while playing the pocket pairs. If you make a large pre-flop raise, you run the risk of unnecessarily becoming pot-committed and overplaying what is probably a mediocre hand. If your hand is lower than 7s, then your chances are worse than a coin flip because the possibility arises that someone with just a little better pair than yours is going heads up against you. If that is the case, then you are really dominated. On the other hand, if you fail to bet you leave the door wide open for someone to call with nothing and hit something on the flop that beats up. These risks underlie why position is so important when playing low to medium pocket pairs. An early position is often the best time to limp in with a low pair. By doing so, you can see how the others behind you react. If someone makes a large raise after you call the large blind that commonly signifies a medium pocket pair or a couple of high cards. If you have the money to gamble, you can call a large raise within reason or comfortably throw them in the muck without remorse if you feel like you are dominated. You will have these options as a result of not overplaying your hand too early. Another reason position should dictate how you play a low to medium pair is you will be provided with the chance to size up the playing style of those behind you. If you have a calling station or a real loose player behind you, think twice about making a sizeable raise and just limp into the flop. If Mr. Call has something in the ballpark of K-9 unsuited, he will probably see your large bet and hope for some luck. If paint hits on the flop, tread lightly because he probably has a better hand. Large bets don’t necessarily shake off weak players who often just call. Inexperienced players tend to not know when they are beat, so a large bet in front of them is not as much a scare tactic as it is for other players. If you are in a late position and there aren’t that many players involved with the pot, this is an opportune time to make a large raise. Raising with a low to medium pair is also advised when you know there are timid and tight players behind you. If you sense weakness, then view your pair of 5s as a pair of Aces. Play them confidently and continually raise to put pressure on tight players. Even if a tight player has a better pocket pair, he will very likely think the situation is reversed in your favor. By maintaining a steady betting pace, you can prevent a tight player from seeing the river and you ultimately know he will only call with the nuts. Whatever decision you make with your low to medium pocket pair, make sure not to lead off with just a small raise. This does little to improve your chances of winning. Be committed and think either stealth or strength with the low to medium pocket pair. By Aaron J. Moore
Top 3 Beginning Player Mistakes In PokerWith the rising popularity of poker spreading across the globe, thousands of new players begin learning how to play poker every day. Even as an experienced poker player, I’ll never forget when I first learned how to play. As a new student to the game of poker, if you’re anything like I was years and years ago, you are probably full of excitement, energy, passion and a craving for everything poker. This article covers the top three common mistakes, in my opinion, made by beginning poker players. After years of playing, it’s generally fairly easy to spot beginning poker players, as well as their rookie mistakes. If you are a beginning poker player, you should read this article several times and attempt to avoid these common mistakes. Learning to spot them will save you money, frustration and time. The mistakes covered in this article can apply to any type of poker game (Texas Hold 'Em, Omaha, Stud, Razz, etc.). These mistakes aren’t necessarily game specific, but we will generally use the game of Texas Hold 'Em for our examples. No. 1: The top mistake seen in most beginning poker players is playing too many hands. This is a very common mistake that most new players get caught up in. When you first begin playing poker, it’s easy to want to play every hand you get dealt. Many beginning players get easily bored when folding hands, so they play the majority of their starting hands. You should be fairly selective when it comes to choosing which starting hands you are playing. If you are playing more than 25 percent of the hands you are dealt, depending on the game, you are generally playing too many starting hands. Playing this many starting hands can always lead to trouble and a quick draining of your poker bankroll. No. 2: The second most common mistake made by beginners is playing above their bankroll. It’s not rare to see newer poker players who might have a bankroll of $400 to their name, step into a $1/$2 NL game with their entire stake in front of them. When you first begin playing, only play at limits you can afford to play. Newer players will often lose track of their financial situations in the excitement of learning to play poker. If you are a beginning player and you step into a game with all of your money, you might have a very short poker career. It’s extremely wise to only play at limits you can afford without risking your entire bankroll at once. No. 3: The final mistake is not leaving emotion at home. Leaving emotion at the door is an extremely important poker lesson that some players learn the hard way. If you’ve had a huge fight with your wife and just got a speeding ticket for going 18 over, you probably don’t belong at a poker table. If you come to a poker game without leaving your emotions at the door, your game will suffer and you’ll end up losing lots of money. You must learn to not mix your negative emotions with your poker game and play. By learning to avoid these common problems, you will start your poker career on a much better foot than the majority of newer players who will often bite on these mistakes. By Colin Fagras
Q&A With Mike SextonBy Dan The Man Mike Sexton has won several tournaments in his career, including a World Series of Poker bracelet, and more than $2.9 millions in tournament winnings. He is also in the top 10 for all-time number of finishes in the money at the WSOP, with 37 cashes. However, Sexton is better known for his promotion of various poker events and services. He is the main host of the World Poker Tour and spokesman for PartyPoker.com, the biggest online poker room. He has written for Card Player Magazine and the Gambling Times. For all his work promoting poker, Sexton is often known as the "ambassador of poker." We got a chance to catch up with Mike while he was at this year's WSOP in Las Vegas and had already won $1 million. Q-You just won $1 millon in the 2006 Tournament of Champions. Can you lend me a few bucks (Sexton donated half of his post-tax earnings to five charities)? A-(laughing) Well, it was a great honor to win a tournament that featured my peers that have been past champions in the WSOP. I beat Daniel Negreanu to win it all and whenever you can beat the best, which Daniel definitely is, it is an honor. It was a lot of fun and a heck of a way to start the month-long festivities of the WSOP. I have had some cashes since then as well, so things are going very well for me, and I couldn’t be happier. Q-Talk about the growth of the WSOP. A-It really is amazing because I remember not too long ago when there were 600 people in the whole tournament, now we are looking at 6,000 and I have even heard upwards of 8,000. The WSOP is by far the showcase event in the world of poker, but with all of the TV coverage like the World Poker Tour that I host on the Travel Channel and ESPN’s great coverage, you don’t have to win the WSOP Main Event to be considered a great poker player. That being said, I don’t think anyone wouldn’t mind the $10 million first prize, but it is just so hard to win it these days with all the people that play on the WSOP now. I always go into the event thinking I can win it, though, and it will be no different this year. Q-Do you think that the projected 7,000-8,000 participants in the WSOP Main Event is too many? A-I think it's a great thing for poker, for the exposure of poker and for the opportunity it gives the everyday player to play with the best in the world. Poker is the only sport that literally anybody with either the $10,000 buy-in or spending as little as a penny and winning a satellite can play in the tournament as has a chance at the big money. Now, as I said, it makes it much harder to win when there are 8,000 people as opposed to 600, but I would take the popularity and visibility of poker the way it is today any day over having a better chance to win the WSOP by having a smaller field. People tend to forget sometimes that the reason the pots are so big is because the more people that play, the more money is out there to be won. |
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