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The Poker Betting Column

- regular informative articles and poker news from leading poker experts to help you make more informed bets, increase your edge and chances of poker betting success.

Check out the Wise Hand of The Day - a professionally written analysis of the poker hands that happened on the biggest tournaments in the World.

The G-Spot: Stealing on the Bubble

By Tony Guerrera

The bubble is that point in a tournament right before the money. In a large multitable tournament, the bubble might start 10-15 places before the money. In a small multitable tournament, the bubble might start somewhere around 5 places before the money. And in single table tournaments, the bubble is usually considered to be one place before the money, though bubble-like playing conditions typically begin when you’re two places away from the money.

Bubble-like playing conditions also occur at two other times: right before the final table of a multitable tournament and right before a big jump in payouts. The term “bubble-like playing conditions” is appropriate because play on the bubble is unique. By being aware of the unique playing dynamic, you’ll recognize prime opportunities to steal chips. And you’ll also recognize situations with normally playable cards and position where folding is best for your poker hands.

Bubble Dynamics

The driving force behind the bubble’s unique playing dynamic is that nobody wants to be eliminated on the bubble. For players with really short stacks, this makes a lot of sense. If a player is two or more double-ups away from being an average stack, his chances of taking a top pay spot are slim, meaning that it’s usually best simply to sneak into the money and take whatever payout he can. If a player is within two double-ups of having an average stack, accumulating chips should generally be a priority; however, players in this position also tend to avoid confrontations that will send them to the rail during bubble play.

The bottom line: players avoid skirmishes on the bubble. To take advantage: steal! At this point in the tournament, players’ stacks are such that raising to somewhere around 2.5 big blinds is usually sufficient enough to take pots uncontested preflop. Whenever short or medium stacks are the only players remaining behind you, raise provided that you have more chips than them (you need more chips since fear of elimination is where your increased fold equity comes from).

Don’t Invite Opponents to Resteal

You won’t be the only player aware of this changed dynamic. If you raise, and a very large stack is behind you, the large stack may reraise because he assumes that you’re most likely stealing and that you won’t want to risk being eliminated on the bubble. Medium stacks not concerned with simply sneaking into the money can pose this same problem.

In short, you should be looking to add chips to your stack on the bubble. However, if you’re not careful, it’s possible to squander valuable chips. In short: know the default bubble dynamic, know that your deeply stacked opponents know the default bubble dynamic, and look for short and medium stacks who deviate from the default dynamic.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Poker - The Irish Open 2008

Europe’s largest poker tournament grows even bigger in 2008.

With an increased capacity, buy-in and guarantee, The Irish Open 2008 will be the greatest festival of poker on the planet!

€3 Million Guaranteed Prize Pool
€4,200 Buy-in + €300 Registration Fee
1,000 player capacity
Dublin
April 2008

Demand for tickets will be huge so book your seat early. Buy directly into the Main Event on our register page, or qualify online on paddypowerpoker.com.

Poker's royalty turned out for the 2007 event including World Series of Poker Champions Dan Harrington and Carlos Mortensen, but in the end it was popular Northern Irish man Marty Smyth who reigned supreme.

Marty lifted the Terry Rogers trophy, taking home €650,000, after an epic heads up battle with Roland De Wolfe. Marty defeated a record breaking field of 708 players which also included Mike Sexton, Dave 'Devilfish' Ulliott, Andy Black, Padraig Parkinson, Scott Gray, Ram Vaswani, David Plastik, Eddie Scharf, Dave Masters, Surinder Sunar, Frank Cruess Callaghan, Ian Frazer, and both G.I. and Vegas versions of Elvis!

Get full details of The Irish Open 2008 at Paddy Power .

The G-Spot: Lessons from the Ladies

By Tony Guerrera

The Situation

A player I coach was recently involved in an instructional hand at the $1,000 buy-in ladies’ event at the The Bicycle Casino’s 2007 Legends of Poker. Her table had seven or eight players. UTG, an aggressive chip leader, raised to 4 big blinds. Action folded to my player, who held JJ in late position. When talking about this hand, my player mentioned to me that the raise to 4 big blinds was odd...whenever UTG raised, it was always to 5 big blinds. I won’t dismiss the possibility that UTG bet 4 big blinds accidentally; however, players who consistently raise to the same amount preflop tend to be very ritualistic. Something significant is happening when such a player raises to a different amount in his poker hands.

A fundamental law of reading players is the following: people tend to do things differently when they have big hands (to extract value) or when they are stone-cold bluffing (to minimize risk). UTG had a history of raising with a wide range of hands, meaning that she probably didn’t care about minimizing risk. Additionally, even generally aggressive players tend to raise with narrower distributions in early position. These two considerations alone mean that UTG had a monster hand. I would have put UTG on KK-AA (tossing QQ in the distribution would be debatable). UTG may as well have been playing her hand face up.

The Mistake

My player keenly noticed the different action...something most other players would miss. Furthermore, she’s a player who’s very capable of making a KK+ read and mucking hands like QQ and AK. In fact, she lost a very minimal amount of money when she had QQ vs. AA earlier in the tournament. Unfortunately, after many hours of play, my player was feeling fatigued.

After noting to herself that something fishy was amiss, she somehow rationalized to herself that the lower bet size was a sign of weakness instead of strength. She took her 15 big blind stack and shoved all-in with her JJ. Action folded to the UTG raiser who quickly called with her AA. My player didn’t win her 19 percenter, and she was sent to the rail in 22nd place in a tournament that paid the top 18 players.

The Lessons

1.) Consider your poker reads and your cards separately. Don’t tweak your reads to rationalize playing a pretty looking hand in a bad spot.

2.) If you’re a tournament player, you need endurance…your physical well-being is directly linked to your mental well-being. Make exercising regularly a habit, and make sure you bring sufficient amounts of food and fluids to the tables.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

The G-Spot: Odds Breakdown

By Tony Guerrera

Two types of odds are important in poker: card odds and payout odds. And payout odds can be broken down into three categories: pot odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds. Understanding all these types of odds will help you make sound decisions at the tables.

Card Odds

Card odds have to do with hitting poker hands. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. Not accounting for reads you may have on your opponents, there are 46 unknown cards in the deck, 9 of which give you a flush. The odds against you hitting your flush are 37:9 (4.11:1).

To draw profitably, your payout odds need to exceed your card odds. In this example, your payout odds need to be at least $4.11:$1.

Pot Odds

Your pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount of money you need to call. Let’s take the flush draw example from above. Say the pot is $400 going into the turn, and you have a single opponent who bets $200. $400 + $200 = $600, so you are getting $600:$200 = $3:$1 pot odds.

Implied Odds

Implied odds refer to money that you’ll win on future betting rounds if you hit your draw. Suppose that if you call the $200 and hit your draw, you’ll win $400 more on the river. If that’s the case, you’re receiving an additional $400:$200 = $2:$1 on your preflop call. Accounting for implied odds, you’re getting $5:$1 instead of $3:$1 on your money.

Reverse Implied Odds

Of course, there’s a chance that you hit your flush draw and still lose. Perhaps he hits a better flush, or your flush out gives your opponent a boat or quads. This means you’re actually getting less than $5:$1 on the money. The precise adjustment for reverse implied odds depends heavily on your opponents’ hand distributions and can take awhile to figure out precisely (I remember the work I put in for some of the examples in Killer Poker By The Numbers). Since you usually won’t know exactly how much your opponents will bet anyway, just know that you should get a rough idea of how much you stand to lose and roughly how often you’ll lose it.

Honestly Assess All Situations

The two biggest mistakes that people make when evaluating their payout odds are:

1.) Assuming that their implied odds are bigger than they truly are
2.) Neglecting to take reverse implied odds into account.

Being a pessimist or an optimist won’t do you any good at the poker tables. Instead, be a realist, and watch the profits roll in.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Tips for a winning poker bluff

by Elizabeth Tudor.

Sometimes in poker, you have a great hand. Sometimes you don't. But not having the best hand does not automatically make you a loser. If you are able to convince other players that your hand is better than it really is, you may be able to bluff your way to victory. If you can master the art of bluffing, you will have a valuable tool that can help you increase your winnings. Here are some pointers for bluffing successfully.

• Bluff when the board indicates that someone could “possibly” have a good hand. For example, if three cards of the same suit are on the board, someone could be holding the fourth card, giving them a flush. If you bet like you are that someone, you might convince the other players that you are. If you can do that, the other players will fold, and you will win the poker hand.

• If it is apparent that another player is looking for a reason to fold, put down a bet that is large enough to give them the reason they are looking for.

• Pay attention to the betting habits of other players. A novice player may bluff too often. An experienced player may be tougher to figure out, but that is the player that really needs to be watched closely.

• Wait before you bluff. If players ahead of you are folding, checking or calling, you have a better idea of what hands they may have then if you attempt to bluff early.

• Don't bluff loose tables unless all of the loose players have already folded. In general, though, loose players tend to play more hands and stay with weaker hands. Bluffing works best at tight tables where players are more likely to fold.

• Use caution when bluffing if you are playing with weak or inexperienced players. These players may not pay attention to your bluff and won't notice that you are acting like you have a strong hand. They may stay in simply because they don't notice what you are doing.

• It is much less likely that someone will call your bluff if the table's limits are high. At low limit tables, there is not much of an advantage to bluffing since it is highly likely that someone will take a chance and call your bluff.

• Use common bluffing scenarios to your advantage but be careful that the stronger players at the table do not notice and turn things against you. For example, suppose it is the late position pre-flop and two players follow you. Your hand does not seem good but everyone else has folded so far. If you bluff here, the remaining two players are likely to think you have a good hand.

• Don't bluff too often. Other players who are paying attention to you won't continue to fall for it. Of course, if you have a good hand right after bluffing successfully, you have an advantage because other players may think you are bluffing again when you're not.

• Don't bet with a pattern. Other players will figure it out if they are paying attention. Find a strategy that will keep other players guessing.

In order to be a good poker player, you need to be skilled at bluffing. This will take some practice, trial and error since bluffing is an art, not a science. By varying your approach, you can make it most effective. Once you have mastered the art of bluffing, you will have a winning edge that can lead to big profits.

Elizabeth Tudor is a mature and experienced poker gambler. Currently she works as a gambling consultant and an article writer for www.pokerlogic.org site, helping other players to make their gambling experience more pleasant and productive.

The G-Spot: Calling for Value

By Tony Guerrera

When thinking about how to extract maximal value from our good hands, our minds usually turn towards aggressive play. We think about the bet amount that will yield the highest possible profits. Against passive opponents, this instinct to bet is usually correct. Against aggressive opponent, it can cost you money.

Don’t Deter Aggressive Opponents

Some opponents pounce on any signs of weakness. Check the turn to them after betting the flop, and they will bet into you. Some of them will call you with absolutely nothing on the flop with the intention of bluffing on the turn or the river–especially when scare cards hit. However, if you continually show aggression, these opponents will fold.

Your aggressive opponents will bet with a much larger range of hands than they will call with. When you have monster hands, trap these opponents for lots of chips by raising the bets you induce from them. When you have good (but vulnerable) hands like top-pair-top-kicker, simply call these opponents down.

Think of Value Betting in Position on the River

To consider why check-calling with good (but vulnerable) hands can sometimes be optimal, let’s think about when to bet in position on the river. When you’re last to act on the river and a single opponent has checked to you, a good value bet is one which will be called by a worse hand more than half of the time. Your opponents’ calling distribution determines the efficacy of a value bet.

Extending this line of thought, to determine how to get the most value out of your hands, simply weigh your opponents’ calling distributions versus their betting distributions. Viewing things through this filter, it becomes clear that:

1.) You get value by playing aggressively against passive opponents because their calling distributions are much wider than their betting distributions
2.) You get value by playing passively against aggressive opponents because their betting distributions are much wider than their calling distributions

Playing passively may result in you having to make some tricky decisions, but when it comes down to it, it’s all about playing the distribution match-ups. Provided that your read on your opponents’ betting and calling distributions are accurate, you’ll come out ahead in the long run.

Everything Is Situational

Of course, you shouldn’t always be aggressive against passive opponents, and you shouldn’t always be passive against aggressive opponents. As long as you realize that “calling for value” is a valid line of play, you’ll be fine. See beyond the tight-aggressive rhetoric from the pundits, and realize that passive play can be just as much of a weapon as aggressive play. The keys, as always, are using the right weapon for the right job and having a logically defined reason for every action you take.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Bad Beat jackpot winnings top $1.2 million

If you thought winning at Texas Hold'em was rewarding, wait until you hear how lucrative losing can be. Absolute Poker today announced that $1,297,394.94 in jackpot money has been won since the popular online poker site launched Bad Beat Jackpot on June 22nd.

"In less than seven weeks, our players have won an unfathomable amount of cash at our Bad Beat Jackpot tables," stated David Clainer, senior vice president for Absolute Poker. "The numbers we released today amount to an average of $185,000 being paid out every week for losing hands."

The latest jackpot was claimed on August 7th by DAMETGARM who lost four nines to a straight flush and instantly won over $50,000 for his loss.

If a player loses a hand holding four 8s or anything better at a Bad Beat Jackpot table, they'll win a piece of the Bad Beat Jackpot. A percentage of the jackpot is shared amongst the players where the bad beat occurred and a fraction of the jackpot is placed back into the pot for the next jackpot.

The nearly $1.3 million figure includes money won by all players every time the jackpot has been hit. It does not take into account pots won through regular Texas Hold'em play at the Bad Beat Jackpot tables.

The G-Spot: Adjust Reads From Tight To Loose

By Tony Guerrera

No matter what specific variant of poker you’re playing, playing profitable poker is all about mastering the following process:

1. Put your opponents on hand distributions
2. Evaluate your own hand (or put yourself on a hand distribution if you’re playing a game like Blind Man’s Bluff)
3. Predict how your opponents will respond to every possible action you can make
4. Pick the most profitable line of play based on #1-#3

Today, we’ll focus on putting your opponents on hand distributions when you first sit at a table.

Default Distributions

Putting your opponents on hand distributions is all about reading your opponents’ betting patterns and picking off their physical tells. You don’t really have the ability to put your opponents on hand distributions until you’ve carefully observed them play for a few orbits. Does this mean that you should fold the first forty or fifty hands you’re dealt?

Hell no…especially if you’re playing at a shorthanded table or in a tournament. The good news is that you actually have information about players you’ve never seen in your life. Before you even play a single hand, you have all your past poker playing experience to draw upon, meaning that you can assign a default playing profile to each opponent before you see the table play a single hand. This default profile will be the average of all the players you typically face.

The more accurate your default profile is, the less trouble you’ll get yourself into during the first orbit or two. However, your default profile is not enough to get you through an entire session or tournament, no matter how good it is. No matter how good your default profile is, you must identify as quickly as possible how each of your opponents deviates from your default playing profile and adjust your play accordingly.

Easier to Accurately Adjust Default Distributions From Tight To Loose

Suppose your default profile assumes that an early position raise means {AT+, 77+}. If you see a player raise with 33 under-the-gun, that one hand gives you sufficient evidence to adjust his early position raising distribution to {AT+, 33+} (and most likely, 22 should also be included). Another opponent shows down AK and JJ after raising from early position. These two hands alone do not provide evidence sufficient for trimming this opponent’s early position raising distribution down to {AK, JJ+}. Tightening up hand distribution reads typically requires more data than loosening up hand distribution reads, meaning that it’s usually best to assign default player profiles that err towards being too tight.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Ladbrokes Poker Cruise 111

The Ladbrokes Poker Cruise is filling up! There are under 100 cabins remaining on this Caribbean poker holiday, which sets sail in January! Book your time off work now for a dream trip for two, as qualification for the much-coveted ‘Cruise Ticket’ is hotting-up as the end of the year nears. Remember - qualification ends when all cabins are full!

On the 25th January 2008, the Ladbrokes Poker Cruise III sets sail from the Cape Liberty Cruise Port located on the New York Harbour in Bayonne, New Jersey (seven miles from New York City and three miles from Newark Liberty International Airport) for a 10 day Caribbean Poker Cruise. This time the poker will be played aboard the deluxe cruise liner ‘Explorer of the Seas’, with every cabin having it’s own balcony and Wi-Fi internet connectivity.

On it's journey, the ship will be visiting the following, exotic destinations:

Puerto Rico: San Juan
St. Thomas: Charlotte Amalie
Dominican Republic: Casa de Campo
Labadee (exclusive private beach & watersports paradise).

The ship returns to Cape Liberty Cruise Port early in the morning on Sunday 3rd February. Disembarkation will start at around 08:00 and all guests should be off the ship by 10:00.

Qualification for a ‘Cruise Ticket’ is still available, including daily Cruise Freerolls! Many of the Ladbrokes poker playing community are already on-board, so why not meet them for real in this tropical paradise? There will be tournament and cash players for all levels, and Team Ladbrokes contenders from the World Series of Poker and Poker Million. And look out for the celebrities joining the ship – details to be announced shortly.

The ‘Cruise Ticket’

The ‘Cruise Ticket’ is worth $5,500 and includes:
A guaranteed ocean view balcony cabin for qualifier and guest for the duration of the 10 day cruise.
Travel allowance for qualifier and guest totalling $1,700.
Eligibility to participate in the Festival of Poker.
Ladbrokes Poker schedule of hospitality and entertainment over and above the standard programme offered on board.
All meals.
How to Qualify for your ‘Cruise Ticket’

To join us on the Ladbrokes Poker Cruise III you need to obtain a $5,500 ‘Cruise Ticket’, which can be won in the $550 + $50 Cruise Weekly Final that is held each Sunday evening.

You can either buy directly into this freeze-out tournament or qualify via the $60 + $6 Cruise Daily Finals, for which there is a daily programme of satellites including the Cruise Freeroll which is held each evening (excepting Saturdays).

During the ‘Cruise Ticket’ qualification period, Ladbrokes will be offering you free opportunities to win Cruise Tickets and seats in Cruise Daily & Weekly Finals. Make sure you check our Promotions section to make sure you do not miss out on your free chances to join the biggest European Poker Event.

Alternatively, if you want to qualify for a Cruise Package that includes entry into the $2,500 Main Event and an additional $1,000 expenses, you can do this by winning a $9,000 LEOTOP package in the LEOTOP Weekly Final that is held every Wednesday evening and redeeming it for a LEOTOP Cruise Package.

Get details of the Ladbroke Poker Cruise

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