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FOR THE VERY LATES ARTICLES AND INFORMATION VISIT THE POKER BLOG.POKER
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The Poker Betting Column- regular informative articles and poker news from leading poker experts to help you make more informed bets, increase your edge and chances of poker betting success.
Check out the Wise Hand of The Day - a professionally written analysis of the poker hands that happened on the biggest tournaments in the World. The G-Spot: The Importance of Payout StructureBy
Tony Guerrera Winner-take-all satellites fall into the same category as tournaments with top-heavy cash payouts. To succeed, you need to accumulate chips from the beginning. Play scared, and you’ll play without winning a seat. When it’s winner-take-all, you need to play to win. As
the percentage of poker players that win seats increases, your strategy
will change. Suppose you’re in a 20-player tournament in which the
top 5 players get the same exact prize… In such a tournament, realize that it doesn’t matter whether you get fifth, fourth, third, second, or first. To win a 20-player tournament outright requires about 4.32 double-ups. To get to the heads-up match even with your foe requires about 3.32 double-ups. To get into the top 5 with the same number of chips as everyone else only requires 2 double-ups!! Of course, you’ll be losing money to the blinds every round, so you’ll need to poke your head in here and there and play some quality small pot poker to stay afloat. And if you play some really good small pot poker hands, you can accumulate chips without even having to worry about risking your tournament life. But if you’re stuck in a tournament where your opponents won’t allow you to play tons of smallball, realize that you only need to win two big confrontations, meaning that you can wait for a much bigger edge in those confrontations than you would wait for in a tournament with a top-heavy payout structure. It’s entirely reasonable to wait for opportunities in which you are close to a 70% favorite when the chips go in because you have more than enough time to wait for such opportunities. The Flatter The Payout, The More You Can Wait Between the typical top heavy and flat payout tournaments are tournaments with linear payouts. An example of a tournament with a linear payout structure would be something like a 30-player $30+$3 sit-n-go that pays $225 for first, $195 for second, $165 for third, $135 for fourth, $105 for fifth, and $75 for sixth. In these tournaments, you should be willing to risk your tournament life with something around a 65% edge. Survival is somewhat important in these tournaments, but it isn’t quite as valuable as survival in flat payout tournaments. The moral of it all: if you play a tournament without considering the payout structure, you won’t be playing the tournament optimally. Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com  15 Events - More Than $9 Million Guaranteed !Join Full Tilt Poker for FTOPS VI starting on Wednesday, November 7th where they’ll be offering more than $9 million in guaranteed prize money spread out over 15 events - each hosted by a Full Tilt Pro. This series features a wide selection of exciting tournaments, including:
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The G-Spot: Piece By Piece By Tony
Guerrera Probably not. Many players underestimate their opponents and assume they will call large, pot-sized bets with top pair and a weak kicker – or even a lesser pair. However, making large pot-sized pots is generally not the way to get value from top pair/top kicker (TPTK) against most opponents. If you have TPTK or an overpair, pot-sized bets generally constrain your opponents’ calling distributions to hands that all have you beaten. Every Made Poker Hand Is Not a Double Up If you make a bet that constrains your opponents’ calling distributions to hands that are all better than yours, then you will lose money in the long run when playing top pair or overpairs. And if you’re losing money with these hands, you’re a losing player. The key to getting value from your good (but vulnerable) hands is realizing that your goal isn’t to double up every time you’re in a pot. Instead of making large pot-sized bets that constrain your opponents’ calling distributions and possibly leave you pot-committed, make bets that are smaller. Make bets that increase your opponents’ calling ranges substantially, so that the hands you’re trying to get value from are actually ahead of your opponents’ calling ranges. Also make bets that don’t leave you pot-committed when your opponents have you crushed. You won’t double-up nearly as often, but you also won’t be getting stacked with TPTK and overpairs against players you’ve misjudged. And realize that you will be winning pots that are larger than average. Instead of making lots of large, discontinuous jumps, your stack will be something more like a tank that moves slowly (but surely) towards its destination. When To Go For The Kill Of course, it’s still important to seek opportunities to go for the kill. When you face opponents who will call pot-sized bets with very marginal holdings, recognize and capitalize appropriately. Also recognize situations when your opponents have very good hands that they will call substantially larger bets with. When you have your opponents beaten in these situations, make them pay – possibly by overbetting the pot. Piece by piece will be your general mentality. But as always, keep your mind open! Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com The G-Spot How to Increase Your Reraising FrequencyBy
Tony Guerrera Generally, overpairs in today’s deeply stacked no-limit hold’em cash games don’t win in giant pots. They are either crushed by two-pair or better or facing something like a 12-outer (against which they are 56% to win). The equity of overpairs in giant pots is horrible – especially when your opponents know you have one. Even when your opponents don’t know what you have, you can’t expect to win giant pots with your overpairs. But at least you can position yourself to win pots that are larger than average. Your two options towards this end are: 1.) Never Reraise
Never reraising
disguises your poker hand strength, but it can lead to tricky multiway
pots. Never reraising isn’t necessarily bad. Just know what you’re getting
yourself into. Reraise With QQ+, and Toss In Random Reraise Bluffs With Random Hands When increasing their reraising distributions, many players introduce hands like AK, AQ, JJ, and TT. When they really start turning up the heat, they toss in AJ, 99, and 88. These are excellent reraising hands against aggressive opponents in tournaments when you’re shortstacked. But in deeply stacked cash games, reraising with these same hands can put you into some troublesome situations. Often, you’ll extract more value with these hands by playing them somewhat passively against a preflop raiser. If you’re losing value by reraising with hands slightly worse then QQ, the real goal of your reraises is to win pots without having to see a flop. Therefore, reraising with bad cards is okay. Not only is it okay, but it’s also optimal. Play your very good hands passively to extract maximal value, and play your bad hands aggressively to increase your reraising frequency. I’m willing to reraise with random cards in random situations. But usually, I reraise with low-medium suited connectors and one-gaps when I’ll have position postflop. That way, I have some backup plans if my reraises are called. And after awhile, you can begin reraising with hands like AK and JJ for value. At this point, your opponents should be sufficiently off balance, and the profits should start rolling in. Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
The G-Spot: Chip Accumulation vs. Chip Preservation?By Tony Guerrera Traditional poker theory describes two tournament-playing philosophies: chip accumulation and chip preservation. To reach a coveted final table and eventually win a tournament, you need to accumulate chips. However, you can’t win a tournament if you don’t survive, and it’s sometimes best to preserve chips in search of a better opportunity. Both these ideas are important, but I firmly believe that the chip preservationists overestimate the impact that their perceived skill edges have – especially late in tournaments when the average stack size is on the order of 10-15 big blinds. Learning From The Best If you’re getting 1:1 on your chips, you should be willing risk your tournament life any time your chances of winning are greater than about 60%. And if you’re getting more than 1:1 on your chips, then your chances of winning can be lower. I get this 60% from modeling tournaments as a series of double-ups, using typical payout structures, and looking at the effective winning percentage of the best online tournament players, whose ROIs tend to be on the order of 100-200%. In practice, top tournament players won’t risk their tournament lives unless they have bigger edges early in tournaments (when blinds are small and fields are weak) and smaller edges later in tournaments (when blinds are high and the riff-raff has been weeded out). Watch the best tournament players both live and online, and you’ll see that they aren’t afraid of mixing it up and taking risks. From my own experience, I can say that I use to focus almost exclusively on chip preservation. Since adopting a less fearful stance, my results in multitable tournaments have been much stronger poker hand. Accumulation and Preservation Don’t Have to be Opposites Focusing on chip accumulation means that you shouldn’t be scared of putting your tournament life on the line. Today’s tournament poker’s top players show no fear, but you’ll notice that they don’t seem to face elimination very often. This happens because of pot-size control. Sometimes, poker’s best tournament players elect to call in situations where aggressive play would be the norm in order to keep pots small in questionable situations. The world’s best
tournament players embrace the fact the hold’em is a game that happens
across four betting rounds; they aren’t afraid of having to make tough
decisions, and they don’t make large, questionable overbets all-in simply
to avoid having to make decisions. Instead of going all-in, they make
raises that leave them with some chips. Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com The G-Spot: Game SelectionBy Tony
Guerrera Though the $100-$200 blind game is smaller, it may very well be the case that your expected win rate at that game will be higher than your expected win rate in the $500-$1,000 blind game. It only takes one or two relatively weak players to affect your expected bottom line substantially – especially in a shorthanded game, where fewer opponents can run interference. And remember that your hourly win-rate is a function of both stakes and competition. If table selection is important for world-class players, imagine how important it is for you! The Ideal Games Many authors write about wanting to play in cash games that are loose and passive. This basically means that people like to stay in hands, and that they typically do so by calling. Another keyword I’d like to ascribe to these games is straightforward. The most profitable games for you will be ones where your opponents employ very little trickery. Against straightforward, passive opponents, you can 1.) value bet your marginal hands to death 2.) know when your good hands are beaten and 3.) pick up lots of free cards. If you’re a tournament player, your goal should be to find tournaments with overlays, good blind structures, favorable payout structures, and typically weak fields. Play around at different venues to find the tournaments that are best for you, and once you find those tournaments, play them religiously. Discipline is Key Sometimes you’ll be lucky and stumble upon a really good game. However, you usually need to go out and find it. If you’re in a casino, walk around and observe all the games before sitting. If there’s a board, and you have no choice regarding where you first sit, request a table change if you’re seated at a tough table. If you’re playing online, table hop until you find a game with the playing conditions you’re looking for. And regardless of how you’ve been doing at a table, don’t grow roots at your table. Games change over time, so if a once easy game has become tough, change tables. Be disciplined, keep your ego out of things, and you’ll be rewarded with a rapidly growing bankroll. Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com The G-Spot: Filtering Poker Tournament Advice: Chip PreservationBy Tony Guerrera Famous player X says that he never calls all-in preflop with AA in a tournament if two other players are already all-in and have him covered. Famous player Y stresses the importance of avoiding marginal confrontations early in tournaments. Every well-known player has given some trinket of poker advice. You need to ask yourself whether those trinkets were properly worded when they were, most likely, given on the spot. You also need to ask yourself if those trinkets apply to the particular situation you’re in. Tournament Variables It’s tempting to think that tournament poker is just about the poker hands. However, it’s about much more. Driving forces behind your tournament decisions will also be the following: • Blind Structure
Whenever a famous tournament player is asked for an on-the-spot tip, you need to remember that those tips are “on-the-spot” and that they, most likely, are most applicable to the types of tournaments that the famous player typically plays in. If you’re playing $5+$1 turbo tournaments online, the advice that someone gives regarding playing the first hour of the WSOP main event might not hold water. Forsaking Present Edges for Bigger Edges in the Future A lot of tournament advice involves avoiding marginal confrontations in the present because losing those confrontations will prevent you from realizing greater edges in the future. Understanding this concept is important, but many players take this advice too far because they overestimate the impact that their skill will have in future hands. Suppose you have AA, and you have 10 big blinds left in a large multitable tournament with a top-heavy payout structure. You’re on the bubble, and the average stack in the tournament is 14BB. You’re in the big blind, and two players that have you covered go all-in before you. Against two opponents, your probability of winning the hand is probably around 65%. A 65% chance of tripling up in a tournament featuring a top-heavy payout schedule is huge. You can’t pass it up. You’ll be eliminated 35% of the time, but how much skill can you honestly employ with a ten big blind stack? Not much. Generally, deep stacks are needed to even consider forsaking marginal edges. However, even in those cases, players overestimate how much of a favorite they need to be in order to risk all their chips. Look at many of today’s top players, and you may be surprised to see that they are quite aggressive in accumulating chips; they are constantly involved. Summary Listening to successful people is important towards becoming successful ourselves. However, whenever listening, be active, and always think of context; as we all know, poker is highly situational. Deciding between preservation and accumulation is your call; make sure you make the right one! Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
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to Australia The $18K prize package includes round-trip airfare from Los Angeles to Melbourne with the pros for you and a friend. Once you've arrived, you will be taken via limo to the luxurious Crown Casino Resort. Situated in the heart of downtown Melbourne, this five-star resort offers breathtaking views of the city and easy access to Melbourne's many amenities - including gourmet restaurants, world-class shopping, and a variety of exciting nightlife. Hanging with the Pros Spend time with your favorite members of Team Full Tilt as you and your guest explore the stunning city of Melbourne and its many attractions. Enjoy private golf outings at the Capital Golf Club - one of the most beautiful courses in Australia. Just make sure to watch out for kangaroos on the fairway! Also on the schedule is a tour of Rochford Wines, one of Australia's premium wineries, and an encounter with the native wildlife at the Melbourne Zoo. With so much fun on hand, we know this is an experience you'll never forget. Aussie After Dark Take time away from the felt to hang with Team Full Tilt members as you go bowling, take a dinner cruise, and experience Melbourne's dazzling nightlife. There will also be opening and closing receptions for the winners and their guests with all the pros. It's time to party - Aussie style! The full prize package is
The G-Spot: Easy ThieveryFullhanded poker games hands populated by loose players are pretty easy; pretty much, you sit around and wait for good hands. It’s quite possible to beat loose fullhanded games without being able to beat any other type of game. What if such a game isn’t available? Or what if you’re looking for ways to make even more money? To thrive in tough games and extract more profits from easy games, you need to find betting patterns that will induce your opponents to fold when you don’t have a good hand. Betting Pattern #1: Squeeze Out Preflop Limpers! Many players who habitually limp preflop will fold to suitably sized preflop raises. If you still have a few players remaining to act behind you, making large raises with any two cards is suicidal. But if you’re on the button or in the blinds, you should think of making a large raise following a limp parade (large meaning slightly bigger than pot-sized). Be cautious of tight, passive players because these players sometimes slowplay big hands, and don’t employ this raise every time. But use this play occasionally to take down some easy pots. Betting Pattern #2: Abuse Postflop Checkers! Players who flop good poker hands will sometimes check the flop, but they’ll rarely check both the flop and the turn. If you’re in late position, and your opponents check both the flop and the turn, consider betting with any two cards. Bet somewhere around 2/3 pot…a bet that they most likely won’t call with draws or speculative hands. (If your opponents will call even much larger bets with draws or speculative hands, then you should abandon this line of play). This play is most successful from late position since you get information from the double check, but you can also run it from early position when a non-threatening card falls after everyone has checked the flop. Betting Pattern #3: Takeaway From Straightforward Preflop Raisers Some preflop raisers
reliably check after missing the flop. Whenever such a player raises
preflop, call with any two cards if you think you’ll be heads-up. If
you’re out of position, check to him on the flop; if he checks behind,
then bet the turn unless it’s a threatening-looking overcard. Meanwhile,
if you’re in position, bet into him if he checks into you on the flop.
Many more stealing patterns exist, but what’s here will help you build a foundation for playing more insightful, creative poker. It’s tempting to abuse these lines of play, but if you use them too much, they will lose their effectiveness. The key, as always, is timing. When it comes to stealing pots, pretend you’re a snake in the grass. Lie in wait, and then strike. Then lie in wait some more before striking again. Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
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