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Cheltenham Weekend Preview

This weekend's “Open Meeting” at Cheltenham is arguably the best jump racing this side of Christmas and is headlined by the Paddy Power Gold Cup. If you're thinking about having a bet on Cheltenham, it's well worth checking out the racing spread betting markets on offer at Sporting Index. We've taken a look at how things may unfold (see preview below) - new clients can claim £100 cash**:

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Cheltenham Weekend Preview

It the past two seasons, the meeting has been dominated by Martin Pipe, who with the support of his main patron David Johnson, and jockey Timmy Murphy, has trained no less than 12 winners from the 36 races that have been run. Martin has now handed over the reigns to his son David who will be trying to carry on his father's good work.

The meeting commences on Friday, with the highlight being the “Sporting Index Cross Country Chase”. Winding its way through the middle of the main course, it offers a unique challenge of jumping and tactics, a combination mastered in recent years by Spot Thedifference and regular partner John Thomas McNamara. They have a remarkable record over the course, having won four out of six in the past two years, with a close second at the Cheltenham Festival in 2006. At thirteen, he has not got many visits to Cheltenham left, but under the conditions of Friday's race will take all the beating again.

The feature race of the meeting is Saturday's “Paddy Power Gold Cup,” a race won by Martin Pipe trained horses for the past two seasons, in Celestial Gold and Our Vic. Those two horses both went on to better things, and who's to say that this year's contender Vodka Bleu isn't capable of more than he's shown us already? David Pipe will obviously be keen to complete the hat-trick for his dad.

Sunday's Greatwood Hurdle is always a fascinating handicap, and has been a stepping stone to the Cheltenham Festival for a number of horses. In 2001, Westender was successful under Tony McCoy, before being touched off in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but 2002 winner Rooster Booster went one better, scooting home by 11 lengths in the Champion Hurdle the following March. His owner, Terry Warner has another live Champion Hurdle hope this year in top juvenile hurdler Detroit City. A recent winner of the valuable Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket in October, connections are unsure whether this imposing grey horse should be stepped up in trip, or campaigned over the minimum distance with the Champion Hurdle as his target.

We will know a lot more after this race, especially with previous festival winners Noland and Arcalis in the line up. It should be a weekend to savour.

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Breaking Down The Breeders' Cup

Here's what to look for when handicapping the eight Breeders' Cup races on Saturday at Churchill Downs:

$2 million Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up: Favorites dominate -- 17 of 22 winners were less than 3-1, which probably accounts for some of the smallest fields.

However, 4-year-old Pleasant Home upset the 13-horse field by more than nine lengths last year at Belmont Park and returned $63.50 on the front end. Remember that no European-based filly or mare has visited the winner's circle, while five 3-year-olds have won.

Of five Distaff contests at Churchill Downs, Spain in 2000 covered the 1 1/8 miles the quickest: 1:47 3/5, and returned the most, $113.80, when the Louisville track hosted its fifth BC.

$2 million Juvenile for fillies, 1 1/16 miles: This is an all-American race – no invader has won. Look for a pedigree screaming stamina. Seven winners returned double-digit payoffs.

But a dozen favorites scored, including Folklore, who led all the way in '05, covering the distance in 1:43 4/5 at the New York track. The best time posted at Churchill Downs was in '00 by Caressing, 1:42 2/5, that paid $96.

$2 million Mile, 3-year-olds and up: Nineteen different horses have triumphed in this turf race, including nine bred in Europe. The event averages 13-plus entries.

While crowded fields usually lead to bad trips, chalk has finished on top about one-third of the time. Second choice Artie Schiller edged favored Leroidesanimaux last year in 1:36. The fastest mile posted at the Louisville track came in '94 when Barathea zipped 1:34 2/5.

Only Lure in '92 was in front at every call. He repeated in '93, but stalked the pace until taking over near the half-mile marker.

$2 million Sprint, six furlongs, 3-year-olds and up: Every winner had a victory at six furlongs and captured a stakes race. Eleven of the 22 scored after a loss, but no winner has come into the contest off an unplaced finish since Desert Stormer in '90.

No running style has dominated. There have been four wire-to-wire victories, another four horses led at nearly every call, nine turned for home in front and six closed from back of the pack.

Last year's winner, Silver Train, challenged the fading Lost in the Fog in mid-stretch and took the lead inside the furlong marker, defeating Taste of Paradise by a head in 1:08 4/5. Fastest time at Churchill Downs was posted in '00 when favored Kona Gold set the track record: 1:07 3/5.

Most European-based runners make their first start on the dirt in this BC contest. Only Sheikh Albadou, bred in Great Britain, visited the winner's circle in '91.

$2 million Filly & Mare Turf, 1 3/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up: Three of seven favorites triumphed, but there's no distinct pattern in the youngest BC race, so it's best to rely on form and class.

All winners were less than six lengths behind at first call. Intercontinental, however, led every step of the way last year, covering 1 ¼ miles in 2:02 1/5. That was the distance for several years. In '00, Perfect Sting won in 2:13 for 1 3/8 miles at Churchill Downs.

$2 million Juvenile for colts and geldings, 1 1/16 miles: Endurance plays a major factor. Seventeen winners were among the top three choices, including '05 second choice Stevie Wonderboy, who covered the distance in 1:41 3/5.

Most champions owned at least one stakes victory, and only two winning 2-year-olds were sent off at odds of more than 10-1. Macho Uno nosed out Point Given in '00, covering the distance in 1:42 and returning $14.60

$3 million Turf, 1 ½ miles, 3-year-olds and up: A dozen European-bred horses won. Those making their last start overseas scored nine times, including the last six in a row, which is the same number of victorious post-time favorites. Class and form often point to the winner.

Eleven winners either broke from the inside three posts or from the eighth slot and outward. German-bred Shirocco broke from Post 2, stalked the pacesetter, took over at the quarter pole and won by 1 ¾ lengths on a good Belmont grass course in 2:29 1/5.

Tikkanen set the Churchill Downs track record of 2:26 2/5 for the distance back in '94.

$5 million Classic, 1 ¼ miles, 3-year-olds and up: Post-time favorites won seven times, including last year when Saint Liam surged past Flower Alley leaving the furlong marker and scored a length victory in 2:01 2/5.

Tiznow, who captured the first of two Classics in '00, covered the 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs in 2:00 3/5 and paid $20.40.

Eleven horses who visited the winner's circle returned more than $10 on the front end.

Only two horses triumphed from the rail, including Ghostzapper in '04, when he became only the second wire-to-wire winner since '91 when Black Tie Affair scored off the longest layoff – 49 days.

Late runners do well as the average length behind the pacesetter after a half-mile is five. So tactical speed is most important.

Outside is the place to be in the Classic. Only four horses have won from Posts 1-3 while eight did from Posts 10 through 14, including Saint Liam from Post 12.

By Greg Melikov
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

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Breeders Cup Back At Churchill

Total purse money was jacked up $6 million to $20 million for the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships on Nov. 4 to keep the races competitive with other major stakes throughout the world.

The BC event is being held for a record sixth time in 16 years at historic Churchill Downs. Seven of the eight races were increased from $500,000 to $1 million. That's plenty of moolah. No purse is less than $2 million.

The BC, which continues to increase in popularity, has enjoyed its best afternoons at Churchill Downs. A record crowd of 80,452 turned out in 1998.

When the BC returned to Churchill Downs in 2000, more than $108 million was wagered the pari-mutuel record for the 22 programs first held in '84.

The Louisville track was supposed to host BC's 21^st edition, but was forced to pass because of the 3 1/2-year-long renovation. Lone Star Park got the gig, and the Texas track was praised for its performance.

In addition to enhanced purses, there was a reduction in entry fees: from 3 percent to 2 1/2 of the total purse for nominated horses and from 20 percent to 15 for supplemental fees to each race.

"We're happy to have the first $20 million day at what we consider to be the home of the Breeders' Cup," said Churchill president Steve Sexton.

I've found over the years that it's a big plus to know how the dirt and grass surfaces are playing at the host track, which begins its fall meeting on Sunday. Remember, track bias changes, sometimes daily.

For example, take a look at how Churchill Downs played during June and July of the summer meeting, according to weekly reports compiled by Brisnet.com:

June 1: The main track favored speed runners on Friday (May 26) and stalkers on Sunday (May 28). There was no apparent path bias last week. The lone turf bias occurred on Saturday (May 27) when off-the-pace runners fared best.

June 8: The main track played honestly to begin the week. It seemed somewhat biased toward early speed types on Friday (June 2), but returned to normal over the weekend. There was no apparent path bias last week. The turf favored speed on Thursday (June 1), while come-from-behind runners did best on Saturday (June 3).

June 15: Speed did well on dirt when racing returned on Wednesday (June 7), with the track playing uniformly until Saturday (June 10). Stalkers and closers held the advantage in sprints over the weekend (June 10-11). There was no apparent path bias last week. The turf course favored off-the-pace runners on both weekend days.

June 22: Speed did well over the main track on Friday (June 16) and Sunday (June 18). No path bias was discernible last week. The turf course was definitely biased towards early speed in sprints.

June 29: The main track remained bias-free all week, as did the turf course. There was no pronounced path bias to report on last week.

July 6: The main track was bias-free on Wednesday (July 5) and Thursday (July 6). Horses near the lead fared well on Friday (July 7), with the track returning to normal on Saturday (July 8) and remaining that way through Tuesday (July 11). The lone bias on the grass occurred Friday (July 7), when closers were definitely advantaged.

July 13: There was no running style or path bias over the main track when racing returned on Friday (July 7). The grass course played honestly as well.

July 20: The main track was biased toward early speed on Thursday (July 13) and Friday (July 14). The track played uniformly over the weekend. There did not appear to be any detectable path bias last week. The turf course played honestly when in use.

During the meeting that opened April 29 through July 16, early speed didn't do well at six furlongs as only 17 percent of 99 winners led at every call. However, 29 percent of 69 winners at 1 1/16 miles went wire-to-wire. In 86 turf routes, only 14 percent of pacesetters triumphed. Closers were at a disadvantage and inside posts were the place to be.

By Greg Melikov
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

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Horses To Watch (26th October 2006)

Compiled by handicapper/racing writer Greg Melikov, won picked five winners and finished second four times since Sept. 29.

CALDER
Three Shots: Raced fourth early, dropped back to fifth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground in fourth swinging out for stretch run, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished well, gaining second by 2 ½ lengths at a mile on Oct. 22.

Real Truth: Bumped with third-place finisher at break, raced fifth more than two lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fourth to make up two lengths in stretch and lost by a half-length at five furlongs on Oct. 21.


DELAWARE PARK
Nomoresurprises: Broke last, raced eighth more than four lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied willingly in stretch to make up two lengths and lost by a length at 5 ½ furlongs on Oct. 22.


HAWTHORNE
Goldekips: Broke last, raced 12th more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from seventh in stretch, made up three lengths and lost by a neck at 6 ½ furlongs on Oct. 20.


PHILADELPHIA PARK
Gameboye: Raced sixth early, dropped back to last more than 14 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, circled field in sixth for drive, made up nearly 4 ½ lengths in stretch and lost by two heads at a mile and 70 yards on Oct. 16.


WOODBINE
Ifbutmaybewhen: Raced ninth more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide late on far turn in sixth, closed willingly to make up more than three lengths in stretch and was nosed out at 1 1/16 miles on Oct. 22.

Author Bio: Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear globally in print and on the Internet. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

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Horses To Watch (22nd October 2006)

Horses worth watching compiled by handicapper/racing writer Greg Melikov, who picked seven winners and finished second three times since Sept. 28.

CALDER

Rapturous: Raced 4.5  lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, advanced three wide on far turn into stretch to third, made up 3.75 lengths and lost by 1.25 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course Oct. 15.

DELAWARE PARK 

Extra Push: Raced third early, fell to fifth six lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out five wide for drive, closed fast to make up more than 5.25 lengths in stretch and was nosed out at six furlongs on Oct. 10.

LAUREL

Enjoyable: Raced seventh more than six lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, steadied in tight quarters entering turn, advanced between rivals to fourth in stretch, made up three lengths and lost by a half-length at five furlongs on the turf Oct. 13.

PHILADELPHIA PARK 

Nosmalifeat: Trailed by more than eight lengths after a half-mile, angled out in stretch, rallied from fourth to make up 3.5 lengths and lost by a length at seven furlongs on Oct. 14; ran final three furlongs in 38 3/5.

RETAMA PARK 

Force of Power: Trailed by more than 7.5 lengths after three-eighths of a mile, advanced on turn from ninth to fifth in stretch, rallied six wide to make up 4.5 lengths and lost by a half-length at 5.5 furlongs on Oct. 13.

SANTA ANITA 

Host Actor: Raced eighth more than 7.5 lengths at a half-mile, dropped back to last after six furlongs, rallied from eighth four wide into stretch, made up more than 2.25 lengths and gained second by a nose at a mile on the turf Oct. 14.

WOODBINE

Silver Gun: Trailed by more than five lengths after a half-mile, saved ground advancing to sixth in upper stretch, blocked in mid-stretch, altered course, closed fast late to make up more than 3.25 lengths and gained second by a nose at six furlongs on Oct. 11.

By Greg Melikov

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Author Bio: Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear globally in print and on the Internet. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

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Horses To Watch (15th October 2006)

Horses worth watching compiled by handicapper/racing writer Greg Melikov, who picked five winners and finished second six times since Sept. 13.

CALDER

Prize Maker: Stumbled at start, saved ground while racing fifth more than 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out leaving far turn and rallied between rivals to gain second by a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf Oct. 8.

DELAWARE PARK

Whispering Echo: Raced sixth more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, blocked through far turn into stretch, found room inside to make up four lengths and lost by a half-length at a mile on Oct. 8.

LOUISIANA DOWNS

Roll On Roll On: Steadied at start, fell behind to last, advanced to fifth 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied late along rail to make up more than three lengths in stretch and lost by a length at six furlongs on Oct. 7; ran final quarter in 23 2/5.

RETAMA PARK

Kemper: Raced seventh more than three lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, swung out four wide in stretch and closed fast to make up three lengths and lost by a length at five furlongs on the turf Oct. 5.

SANTA ANITA

Irish Place: Raced sixth more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came out in stretch to finish well, making up more than 4 ¼ lengths and lost by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Oct. 7.

WOODBINE

Marchfield: Raced seventh more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, roused three wide late on turn, rallied from fifth to make up more than four lengths in stretch and was nosed out at six furlongs on Oct. 8.

By Greg Melikov

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Author Bio: Greg Melikov has been handicapping and writing about horses for decades. His articles and columns appear globally in print and on the Internet. Greg is a retired newspaperman who became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park.

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